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Prediction markets for AI Artifacts

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

Aug 23, 6:50 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.4%chance

367049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15737

14292

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.58%chance

395457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3087

327

By what year will almost all "LLM-domain" jobs be automatable?

Sep 9, 6:12 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

5782

OptionProbability

Before 2038

Before 2040

Before 2036

Before 2034

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

80

80

75

69

64

60

55

50

40

8

Gravitational Wave Echoes Detection in 2026

Mar 28, 2:06 PMDec 31, 3:03 PM

2.7%chance

10503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

97

SOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model?

Jul 11, 1:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.31%chance

6317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

407

25

Will Crypton Future Media announce a singing synth voicebank for software made by another company by the end of 2026?

Jan 4, 6:35 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

92.02%chance

7288

OptionVotes

NO

YES

370

47

When will the Exalted 3e RPG supplement 'Sidereals: Agents of Heaven' be released?

Aug 15, 5:13 PMJan 29, 7:59 AM

3113

OptionProbability

Jul-Dec 2027

Jan-Jun 2027

Jan-Jun 2028

Jul-Dec 2028

Jan-Jun 2029

Aug-Dec 2026

Jul-Dec 2029

Jan-Jun 2030

Jul-Dec 2030

23

18

10

10

10

9

7

7

7

How will competing views of AI identity (instance, weights, persona) be relatively favored by researchers in 2030?

Mar 23, 9:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

Weights

Instance

Persona

37

32

32

Will Anthropic's next AI R&D-4 determination resolve "not crossed, with hedge + voluntary artifacts"? (Motion 001 P1)

Jul 9, 4:55 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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