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AI Assistant News

By the end of 2025, will any AI beat Pokemon Emerald Version without human assistance?

Jan 15, 9:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.45%chance

809416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2114

313

AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench without any assistance, by 2028?

Jan 15, 4:52 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

268926

OptionProbability

X = 2

X = 4

X = 8

X = 16

X = 32

X = 60

X = 40

X = 50

X = 75

X = 85

X = 70

X = 90

X = 80

X = 95

100

100

100

100

100

97

95

95

95

95

94

94

93

73

AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028?

Jan 15, 4:54 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

216326

OptionProbability

X = 5

X = 10

X = 15

X = 20

X = 30

X = 50

X = 65

X = 40

X = 60

X = 70

X = 75

X = 85

X = 80

100

100

100

100

100

92

92

91

89

89

79

77

72

Will an AI system beat human performance in Trackmania Tool-Assisted Speedrunning by the end of 2025?

Dec 3, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.44%chance

124856

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3188

689

Will over 50% of households in any developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making by the end of 2030?

Jan 8, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

55%chance

352427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

966

By 2028 end, will there be AI-assisted therapy, where therapists visually explore a patient's thoughts/memories?

Jul 5, 4:15 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

17.09%chance

391779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

990

Will a non specialized AI assistant master French grammar rule of "L'accord du participe passé" at the end of 2025 ?

Dec 10, 9:33 AMDec 31, 10:00 PM

63.34%chance

291498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

922

Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?

Dec 3, 2:54 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

16.3%chance

191105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

763

Will a major AI lab claim to use activation steering in its main chat assistant by EOY 2025?

Jan 25, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.15%chance

15582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

110

Before 2026, will you be able to buy ads in a mainstream AI assistant?

Oct 29, 4:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12%chance

12243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

AI to assist in designing "Enlightment guides" by 2100.

Jun 8, 4:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

5187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

180

105

Will AI Agents / Assistants significantly disrupt consumer-facing software moats? 🤖🖥💥

Feb 20, 12:39 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

59.81%chance

322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

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