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Prediction markets for AI Assistant

AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028?

Jan 15, 4:54 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

229346

OptionProbability

X = 5

X = 10

X = 15

X = 20

X = 30

X = 60

X = 70

X = 50

X = 65

X = 75

X = 80

X = 40

X = 85

100

100

100

100

100

99

99

98

98

98

98

97

94

AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench without any assistance, by 2028?

Jan 15, 4:52 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

268926

OptionProbability

X = 2

X = 4

X = 8

X = 16

X = 32

X = 60

X = 40

X = 50

X = 75

X = 85

X = 70

X = 90

X = 80

X = 95

100

100

100

100

100

97

95

95

95

95

94

94

93

73

Will over 50% of households in any developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making by the end of 2030?

Jan 8, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

55%chance

352427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

966

By 2028 end, will there be AI-assisted therapy, where therapists visually explore a patient's thoughts/memories?

Jul 5, 4:15 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

16.92%chance

401789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

988

Share of US work hours assisted by AI in 2027? [LEAP]

Nov 11, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

151779

OptionProbability

5% - 10%

10% - 15%

<5%

15% - 20%

20% - 25%

25% - 30%

Other

30% - 35%

35% - 40%

40% - 45%

45% - 50%

39

21

13

11

5

3

3

1

1

1

1

What AI research assistant(s) should I use?

Oct 27, 12:06 AMNov 26, 1:02 AM

51195

OptionProbability

Elicit AI

Undermind

You.com

Perplexity

22

22

21

17

Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?

Dec 3, 2:54 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

16.3%chance

191105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

763

By 2035, will "assistant" be primarily used to refer to AI assistants?

Jul 1, 8:33 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

48.59%chance

12365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

AI to assist in designing "Enlightment guides" by 2100.

Jun 8, 4:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

5187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

180

105

Will Apple introduce an AI assistant product that can speak and display basic human-like emotions before EOY 2027

Jan 3, 9:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.06%chance

6105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

77

Will a Top 50 US public school district officially mandate or adopt an AI assistant for core grading by June 2027?

Jul 14, 11:03 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

27.84%chance

798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

62

Will AI Agents / Assistants significantly disrupt consumer-facing software moats? 🤖🖥💥

Feb 20, 12:39 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

59.81%chance

322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

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