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AI Assistant News

AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench without any assistance, by 2028?

Jan 15, 4:52 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

268926

OptionProbability

X = 2

X = 4

X = 8

X = 16

X = 32

X = 60

X = 40

X = 50

X = 75

X = 85

X = 70

X = 90

X = 80

X = 95

100

100

100

100

100

97

95

95

95

95

94

94

93

73

When will an AI-assisted bio-attack first result in at least 1,000,000 deaths?

Jan 24, 7:28 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

444300

OptionProbability

Never or after or including 2045

2030-2035

2035-2040

2025-2030

2040-2045

Now - 2025

63

19

8

4

4

1

Will there be a verified AI-assisted solution to one of the Millennium Prize problems by the end of 2026?

Dec 21, 9:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.48%chance

172879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

254

39

Will over 50% of households in any developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making by the end of 2030?

Jan 8, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

55%chance

352427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

966

By 2028 end, will there be AI-assisted therapy, where therapists visually explore a patient's thoughts/memories?

Jul 5, 4:15 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

16.92%chance

401789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

988

What AI research assistant(s) should I use?

Oct 27, 12:06 AMNov 26, 1:02 AM

51195

OptionProbability

Elicit AI

Undermind

You.com

Perplexity

22

22

21

17

Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?

Dec 3, 2:54 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

16.3%chance

191105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

763

Share of US work hours assisted by AI in 2030? [LEAP]

Nov 11, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5806

OptionProbability

Other

10% - 15%

15% - 20%

5% - 10%

20% - 25%

30% - 35%

25% - 30%

35% - 40%

40% - 45%

45% - 50%

<5%

20

16

13

11

8

8

6

5

5

5

4

Will there be a good AI personal assistant released in 2026?

Feb 23, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.43%chance

22722

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

93

By 2035, will "assistant" be primarily used to refer to AI assistants?

Jul 1, 8:33 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

48.59%chance

12365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

Will there be a trend of companies removing "AI-assisted" features from their products before the end of 2026?

Dec 14, 10:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11%chance

9294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

Will AI Agents / Assistants significantly disrupt consumer-facing software moats? 🤖🖥💥

Feb 20, 12:39 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

59.81%chance

322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

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