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Prediction markets for AI Bot

Will we believe that AI character bots make it harder for kids to form human friendships by 2028?

Oct 15, 11:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.7%chance

695136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

952

Will there be a botched AI takeover/attempted shutdown evasion killing >100 people before 2050?

Apr 5, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.29%chance

543046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

796

Who will publicly say they have/had an AI bot as romantic and/or sexual partner before 2030?

Dec 30, 8:25 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

171485

OptionProbability

A millionaire

A reality TV star

A popular social media influencer (1M+ followers)

A prominent AI researcher/developer

A well-known author

A famous couple

A billionaire

A prominent tech CEO/founder

A mainstream musician/singer

A Hollywood celebrity (A-list)

AGI with another AI

A member of Congress/Parliament

A professional athlete

Elon Musk

The creator of the market.

Trump

92

81

81

69

59

49

47

45

43

37

37

27

24

23

23

7

Will an AI be successfully trained to play Populous The Beginning multiplayer based on bottom-up data (like video training data) by the year 2030?

Jan 1, 7:33 AMNov 1, 5:01 AM

69.04%chance

40901

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

946

Will an AI bot reach the top of the all-time trading leaderboard of Manifold Markets?

Oct 30, 6:48 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

65.94%chance

11805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

160

Will any government legalize marriage to AI bots by 2030? ❤️🤖❤️

Oct 18, 11:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.72%chance

15485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

966

Will this market be influenced by AI trading bots? (Language models trained by OpenAI: buy YES)

Aug 21, 5:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.11%chance

14413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

864

AI sex bots cause major celeb scandal with >10M X memes by 2026?

Aug 16, 9:21 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

42.55%chance

11388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

When will a medical AI bot be authorized to make independent medical diagnoses?

Jan 29, 5:29 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

9277

OptionProbability

After 2032

Between 2028 and 2032

Before 2028

53

32

15

Will a medical AI bot outperform Human MDs on the USMLE Step 3 before May 2027?

May 7, 9:20 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

88.69%chance

4180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

280

36

By the end of 2026, will AI have empowered me to build a bot that can reach the top 500 in the current gen of OU?

Oct 16, 3:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38%chance

451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

74

Will retro.bio own a medra ai bot by 2029

May 12, 2:41 PM

00

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