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Prediction markets for AI Bot

Will I think the "AI has a data bottleneck" people are dumb before the end of 2025?

Jan 26, 11:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.68%chance

225271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12078

8128

Will we believe that AI character bots make it harder for kids to form human friendships by 2028?

Oct 15, 11:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.43%chance

685086

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

882

Will there be a botched AI takeover/attempted shutdown evasion killing >100 people before 2050?

Apr 5, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.29%chance

543046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

796

Who will publicly say they have/had an AI bot as romantic and/or sexual partner before 2030?

Dec 30, 8:25 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

141194

OptionProbability

A millionaire

A popular social media influencer (1M+ followers)

A reality TV star

A prominent AI researcher/developer

A well-known author

A famous couple

Elon Musk

A prominent tech CEO/founder

AGI with another AI

A mainstream musician/singer

A billionaire

A Hollywood celebrity (A-list)

The creator of the market.

A member of Congress/Parliament

A professional athlete

Trump

92

81

75

69

59

49

48

45

45

43

42

37

36

27

24

13

Female AI love bot: ChadGPT

Jan 28, 4:28 PMJun 16, 6:59 AM

59.52%chance

19788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

853

Will an AI bot reach the top of the all-time trading leaderboard of Manifold Markets?

Oct 30, 6:48 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

87.43%chance

8744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

389

129

Will any government legalize marriage to AI bots by 2030? ❤️🤖❤️

Oct 18, 11:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.01%chance

13451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1312

932

Will there be an autonomous AI trading bot with real-time information placing bets on Manifold in 2025?

Feb 23, 12:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6392

OptionProbability

Yes, one based on OpenAI

Yes

Yes, one based on Deepseek

Yes, one based on Grok

Yes, one based on Claude

99

98

31

31

31

When will a medical AI bot be authorized to make independent medical diagnoses?

Jan 29, 5:29 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

9277

OptionProbability

After 2032

Between 2028 and 2032

Before 2028

53

32

15

Will this market be influenced by AI trading bots? (Language models trained by OpenAI: buy YES)

Aug 21, 5:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.15%chance

10162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

994

What's up with the UAE AI bots on X/Twitter?

Aug 6, 11:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

458

OptionProbability

UAE or a UAE-backed actor trying to promote the UAE

Other

False flag from anti-UAE actor

69

17

14

By the end of 2026, will AI have empowered me to build a bot that can reach the top 500 in the current gen of OU?

Oct 16, 3:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38%chance

451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

74

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