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Prediction markets for AI Bot

Will we believe that AI character bots make it harder for kids to form human friendships by 2028?

Oct 15, 11:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.7%chance

695136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

952

Will there be a botched AI takeover/attempted shutdown evasion killing >100 people before 2050?

Apr 5, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.29%chance

543046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

796

Who will publicly say they have/had an AI bot as romantic and/or sexual partner before 2030?

Dec 30, 8:25 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

161335

OptionProbability

A millionaire

A reality TV star

A popular social media influencer (1M+ followers)

A prominent AI researcher/developer

A well-known author

A famous couple

A billionaire

A prominent tech CEO/founder

A mainstream musician/singer

A Hollywood celebrity (A-list)

AGI with another AI

The creator of the market.

A member of Congress/Parliament

A professional athlete

Elon Musk

Trump

92

81

81

69

59

49

47

45

43

37

37

36

27

24

23

13

Will an AI be successfully trained to play Populous The Beginning multiplayer based on bottom-up data (like video training data) by the year 2030?

Jan 1, 7:33 AMNov 1, 5:01 AM

69.04%chance

40901

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

946

Will an AI bot reach the top of the all-time trading leaderboard of Manifold Markets?

Oct 30, 6:48 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

65.94%chance

11805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

160

Female AI love bot: ChadGPT

Jan 28, 4:28 PMJun 16, 6:59 AM

59.52%chance

19788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

853

Will AI "love bots/virtual girlfriends" be good enough to reduce the % of "unwarranted male attention" by 50% by 2027?

Feb 23, 9:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.93%chance

19758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

873

Will any government legalize marriage to AI bots by 2030? ❤️🤖❤️

Oct 18, 11:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.54%chance

14471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

952

Will this market be influenced by AI trading bots? (Language models trained by OpenAI: buy YES)

Aug 21, 5:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.11%chance

14413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

864

AI sex bots cause major celeb scandal with >10M X memes by 2026?

Aug 16, 9:21 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

42.55%chance

11388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

When will a medical AI bot be authorized to make independent medical diagnoses?

Jan 29, 5:29 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

9277

OptionProbability

After 2032

Between 2028 and 2032

Before 2028

53

32

15

By the end of 2026, will AI have empowered me to build a bot that can reach the top 500 in the current gen of OU?

Oct 16, 3:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38%chance

451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

74

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