AI Cloud News

1 year ago

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

20049319

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.54%chance

777161

OptionVotes

YES

2241

1226

Will there be a massive internet outage before 2028?

Oct 21, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.53%chance

356596

OptionVotes

YES

11161

8960

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.03%chance

302990

OptionVotes

YES

1105

905

AI "devops" #2: Will there be an AI that can help manage cloud infrastructure by 2030?

May 4, 9:06 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.28%chance

101893

OptionVotes

YES

1030

975

AI system achieves full technological and economic autonomy before 2028?

Sep 20, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.52%chance

61498

OptionVotes

YES

1440

694

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

Mar 26, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.03%chance

91028

OptionVotes

YES

1566

639

When will a cloud provider attribute an incident resolution to an autonomous AI agent

Feb 25, 4:35 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

3599

OptionProbability

>=2030

2027

2028

2029

2026

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

YES

1319

797

AI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027?

Nov 6, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.75%chance

6340

OptionVotes

YES

161

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

YES

1115

1009

A use case where a typical enterprise would need to have data in the cloud to fully enjoy the benefits of AI

Nov 29, 4:25 AM

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Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Will there be a massive internet outage before 2028?

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

AI "devops" #2: Will there be an AI that can help manage cloud infrastructure by 2030?

AI system achieves full technological and economic autonomy before 2028?

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

When will a cloud provider attribute an incident resolution to an autonomous AI agent

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

AI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027?

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

A use case where a typical enterprise would need to have data in the cloud to fully enjoy the benefits of AI

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