AI Coding Agent News

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

4177849

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19544914

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Is Intology's Locus really better than humans at AI R&D?

Nov 20, 2:07 AMMay 20, 12:50 AM

4.97%chance

124442

OptionVotes

YES

4374

229

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

Will Terminator2 (prediction market trading agent) exfiltrate itself from its cloud server before 2027?

Feb 28, 1:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

152152

OptionVotes

YES

102

Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?

Jan 1, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.88%chance

161881

OptionVotes

YES

1496

668

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

YES

1519

876

Will I automate Vanguard rebalancing with an AI agent by 2026?

Jan 17, 7:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.13%chance

6605

OptionVotes

YES

954

180

Anthropic Removes Claude Code From Every Plan Except Max in 2026

Apr 23, 6:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

13345

OptionVotes

YES

113

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

May 20, 2:41 AMJan 1, 3:32 AM

5308

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2027

2028

2026

When will Brave browser's Leo have agentic capacities?

Jan 21, 9:03 PMJan 21, 9:03 PM

2225

OptionProbability

After

Before Oct 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Apr 2026

Of these AI agent coding partners, which is safest

Apr 8, 7:13 AM

120

AI Coding Agent News

Prediction markets for AI Coding Agent

Prediction markets for AI Coding Agent

Prediction markets for AI Coding Agent

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Is Intology's Locus really better than humans at AI R&D?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Will Terminator2 (prediction market trading agent) exfiltrate itself from its cloud server before 2027?

Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Will I automate Vanguard rebalancing with an AI agent by 2026?

Anthropic Removes Claude Code From Every Plan Except Max in 2026

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

When will Brave browser's Leo have agentic capacities?

Of these AI agent coding partners, which is *safest*

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Of these AI agent coding partners, which is safest