AI Coding Agent News

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

3573975

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

The multi-agent paradigm will win

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

387022

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

Is Intology's Locus really better than humans at AI R&D?

Nov 20, 2:07 AMMay 20, 12:50 AM

6.27%chance

103934

OptionVotes

YES

3866

259

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026

Feb 1, 4:55 PMMar 3, 11:59 PM

41.18%chance

292620

OptionVotes

YES

1195

837

Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?

Jan 1, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.09%chance

151757

OptionVotes

YES

1600

625

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

YES

1519

876

Which AI code editor will be the most popular EOY2026?

May 6, 5:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22892

OptionProbability

Visual Studio Code (w/ Github Copilot or any other built-in)

Any code editor + CLI tools (such as Claude Code, OpenAI Codex)

Other

Visual Studio Code (w/ 3rd party agent)

Cursor

Zed

Antigravity

Windsurf

Firebase Studio

Will I automate Vanguard rebalancing with an AI agent by 2026?

Jan 17, 7:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.13%chance

6605

OptionVotes

YES

954

180

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

May 20, 2:41 AMJan 1, 3:32 AM

5308

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2027

2028

2026

When will Brave browser's Leo have agentic capacities?

Jan 21, 9:03 PMJan 21, 9:03 PM

2225

OptionProbability

After

Before Oct 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Apr 2026

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

AI Coding Agent News

Prediction markets for AI Coding Agent

Prediction markets for AI Coding Agent

Prediction markets for AI Coding Agent

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Is Intology's Locus really better than humans at AI R&D?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026

Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Which AI code editor will be the most popular EOY2026?

Will I automate Vanguard rebalancing with an AI agent by 2026?

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

When will Brave browser's Leo have agentic capacities?

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

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