AI Coding Agent News

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

239556

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Coding agents will flip the initiative

“Live learning” will be standard

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

376881

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

Will a paper solely authored by an AI research agent receive at least 100 citations by EOY 2025?

Aug 15, 12:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

5.41%chance

466245

OptionVotes

YES

4180

239

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

Dec 27, 8:22 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

93.64%chance

163091

OptionVotes

YES

3838

261

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

YES

1519

876

Will SotA on PaperBench (Code-Dev) surpass 75% in 2025?

Apr 7, 1:59 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

40%chance

9755

OptionVotes

YES

5735

4626

Which AI code editor will be the most popular EOY2026?

May 6, 5:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12530

OptionProbability

Visual Studio Code (w/ Github Copilot or any other built-in)

Cursor

Zed

Any code editor + CLI tools (such as Claude Code, OpenAI Codex)

Windsurf

Other

Visual Studio Code (w/ 3rd party agent)

Firebase Studio

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

May 20, 2:41 AMJan 1, 3:32 AM

2240

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2027

2028

2026

AI Coding Agent News

Prediction markets for AI Coding Agent

Prediction markets for AI Coding Agent

Prediction markets for AI Coding Agent

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Will a paper solely authored by an AI research agent receive at least 100 citations by EOY 2025?

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Will SotA on PaperBench (Code-Dev) surpass 75% in 2025?

Which AI code editor will be the most popular EOY2026?

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

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