AI Coding Agent News

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

4281215

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19745815

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

397377

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?

Jan 1, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.19%chance

161981

OptionVotes

YES

1596

626

Which AI code editor will be the most popular EOY2026?

May 6, 5:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

271111

OptionProbability

Any code editor + CLI tools (such as Claude Code, OpenAI Codex)

Other

Visual Studio Code (w/ 3rd party agent)

Visual Studio Code (w/ Github Copilot or any other built-in)

Zed

Cursor

Antigravity

Windsurf

Firebase Studio

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

YES

1519

876

Will I automate Vanguard rebalancing with an AI agent by 2026?

Jan 17, 7:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.13%chance

6605

OptionVotes

YES

954

180

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Nov 5, 9:15 PMDec 15, 11:59 PM

7.26%chance

7598

OptionVotes

YES

357

Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?

Feb 8, 4:02 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

9.1%chance

7546

OptionVotes

YES

316

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

May 20, 2:41 AMJan 1, 3:32 AM

5308

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2027

2028

2026

Of these AI agent coding partners, which is safest

Apr 8, 7:13 AM

120

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Prediction markets for AI Coding Agent

Prediction markets for AI Coding Agent

Prediction markets for AI Coding Agent

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?

Which AI code editor will be the most popular EOY2026?

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Will I automate Vanguard rebalancing with an AI agent by 2026?

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

Of these AI agent coding partners, which is *safest*

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Of these AI agent coding partners, which is safest