AI Coding Agent News

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6597473

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

@retr0id

@vi

@Quroe

@Bandors

@zhengkyl

@Eternal

@Cy

@8my41

@astroblob

@AlirezaAfshan

@AtharvPatil

Pat Scott @Stralor

@Celene

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19947933

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.2%chance

17132633

OptionVotes

YES

14073

7523

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Aug 30, 6:29 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

86.31%chance

193431

OptionVotes

YES

2511

398

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

Aug 30, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.01%chance

172834

OptionVotes

YES

1062

942

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?

Jan 1, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.19%chance

161981

OptionVotes

YES

1596

626

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

YES

1519

876

Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?

Aug 6, 12:41 AMAug 6, 12:39 AM

52.96%chance

6980

OptionVotes

YES

1061

942

Will open-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?

Aug 6, 12:49 AMAug 6, 12:48 AM

32.23%chance

4450

OptionVotes

YES

1450

690

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

May 20, 2:41 AMJan 1, 3:32 AM

5308

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2027

2028

2026

Of these AI agent coding partners, which is safest

Apr 8, 7:13 AM

130

AI Coding Agent News

Prediction markets for AI Coding Agent

Prediction markets for AI Coding Agent

Prediction markets for AI Coding Agent

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?

Will open-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

Of these AI agent coding partners, which is *safest*

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Of these AI agent coding partners, which is safest