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Prediction markets for AI Conference

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

25.33%chance

11415508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1992

610

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

When will the average number of submissions to top AI conferences first decline over the previous year?

Aug 26, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46979

OptionProbability

2025

>2034

2024

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031-2034

Other

17

10

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.36%chance

174113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1978

506

Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Oct 31, 11:55 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

20.73%chance

121806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1955

511

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?

Mar 5, 8:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

83.04%chance

411582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

977

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

56.48%chance

31967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

753

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

71.61%chance

29939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

981

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Jamie Dimon to mention prediction markets in 2026?

Jan 17, 9:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.09%chance

8132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.61%chance

334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

A major AI conference will require bomb scanners or other security to prevent a terrorist attack by 2026

Mar 26, 4:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.98%chance

428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

119

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