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Prediction markets for AI Control Center

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

497048

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

57

34

32

14

12

10

8

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?

Jun 30, 1:32 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

6.12%chance

306077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3918

255

Will there be a confirmed case of Cyclosporiasis in ALL 48 US contiguous states before the end of August 2026?

Jul 14, 7:13 PMSep 15, 11:59 PM

30.56%chance

164218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

847

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.

Feb 24, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.71%chance

19562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

40

Will the Trump administration sign a bilateral agreement to acquire land in Greenland by the end of 2026?

Feb 2, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.35%chance

9417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

421

24

Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?

Apr 1, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

8261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will the Roman Space Telescope launch be a success?

Jul 3, 3:07 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

95.52%chance

6185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

217

92

Will Furnace Creek, Death Valley record a high temperature of at least 129.0°F by September 28, 2026 (9/28/26)?

Jun 13, 8:04 PMSep 27, 11:59 PM

35.56%chance

10157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

74

Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?

Jun 21, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

3112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

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