AI Defender News

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.02%chance

19736975

OptionVotes

YES

2290

437

Will Democrats win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections?

Feb 20, 1:55 AMNov 4, 12:00 AM

92.45%chance

495709

OptionVotes

YES

350

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

6181

6090

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM

14.4%chance

504152

OptionVotes

YES

1057

959

Which events will happen before AGI is released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 3:09 PMJan 1, 3:46 PM

93627

OptionProbability

A model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

A model is publicly released which scores >65% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

METR or an equivalently credible organization judges that a tested AI system (not necessarily released) is “self-sustaining,” capable in principle to “autonomously operate indefinitely, acquire resources, and defend its existence”

The US unemployment rate exceeds 10% for any reason

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-4 for an internally or externally deployed model

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-5 for an internally or externally deployed model

US Real GDP growth rate exceeds 6% (annualized) for two consecutive quarters, attributed primarily to AI

OpenAI announces it has "achieved AGI" in the manner legally relevant for its agreement with Microsoft

100

Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Oct 31, 11:55 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

7.82%chance

143520

OptionVotes

YES

3434

291

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

YES

1015

943

Will an AI successfully defend or prosecute someone in court before 2030

Apr 3, 1:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.7%chance

15759

OptionVotes

YES

1343

564

Will Islam Makhachev still be the ufc welterweight champion at the end of 2026

Aug 14, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.89%chance

8369

OptionVotes

YES

329

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

Oct 24, 2:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.72%chance

3124

OptionVotes

YES

184

Will a NBA team repeat win Back to Back Championships in the next 5 years?

Jun 12, 3:19 PMJun 12, 3:18 PM

55.95%chance

876

OptionVotes

YES

113

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Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Will Democrats win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Which events will happen before AGI is released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will an AI successfully defend or prosecute someone in court before 2030

Will Islam Makhachev still be the ufc welterweight champion at the end of 2026

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

Will a NBA team repeat win Back to Back Championships in the next 5 years?

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