A model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)
Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-4 for an internally or externally deployed model
METR or an equivalently credible organization judges that a tested AI system (not necessarily released) is “self-sustaining,” capable in principle to “autonomously operate indefinitely, acquire resources, and defend its existence”
A model is publicly released which scores >65% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)
The US unemployment rate exceeds 10% for any reason
Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-5 for an internally or externally deployed model
US Real GDP growth rate exceeds 6% (annualized) for two consecutive quarters, attributed primarily to AI
OpenAI announces it has "achieved AGI" in the manner legally relevant for its agreement with Microsoft