AI Defender News

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.31%chance

19736834

OptionVotes

YES

2352

425

Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?

Mar 11, 4:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

957703

OptionVotes

YES

271

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

6181

6090

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM

14.4%chance

504152

OptionVotes

YES

1057

959

Which events will happen before AGI is released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 3:09 PMJan 1, 3:46 PM

93627

OptionProbability

A model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

A model is publicly released which scores >65% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

METR or an equivalently credible organization judges that a tested AI system (not necessarily released) is “self-sustaining,” capable in principle to “autonomously operate indefinitely, acquire resources, and defend its existence”

The US unemployment rate exceeds 10% for any reason

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-4 for an internally or externally deployed model

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-5 for an internally or externally deployed model

US Real GDP growth rate exceeds 6% (annualized) for two consecutive quarters, attributed primarily to AI

OpenAI announces it has "achieved AGI" in the manner legally relevant for its agreement with Microsoft

100

Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Oct 31, 11:55 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

19.14%chance

131906

OptionVotes

YES

2055

487

Will an AI successfully defend or prosecute someone in court before 2030

Apr 3, 1:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.7%chance

15759

OptionVotes

YES

1343

564

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

YES

1031

884

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM

65.93%chance

12152

OptionVotes

YES

139

will france win the world cup

Mar 29, 9:01 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

20%chance

977

OptionVotes

YES

105

Will any NFL team start the 2026 regular season 7-0?

Jun 13, 9:08 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

66.22%chance

253

OptionVotes

YES

140

AI Defender News

Prediction markets for AI Defender

Prediction markets for AI Defender

Prediction markets for AI Defender

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Which events will happen before AGI is released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Will an AI successfully defend or prosecute someone in court before 2030

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

will france win the world cup

Will any NFL team start the 2026 regular season 7-0?

Latest stories