AI Defender News

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49%chance

19129348

OptionVotes

YES

1020

980

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Jan 18, 10:56 AMMay 31, 10:59 PM

52.64%chance

475746

OptionVotes

YES

1054

949

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

6181

6090

Which teams will make it to the NBA Finals in 2026?

Feb 17, 5:39 PMJun 3, 11:59 PM

455406

OptionProbability

Oklahoma City Thunder

New York Knicks

Detroit Pistons

San Antonio Spurs

Cleveland Cavaliers

Other

Philadelphia 76ers

Minnesota Timberwolves

Los Angeles Lakers

Denver Nuggets

Boston Celtics

Houston Rockets

Miami heat

Golden State Warriors

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM

14.4%chance

504152

OptionVotes

YES

1057

959

Which events will happen before AGI is released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 3:09 PMJan 1, 3:46 PM

93627

OptionProbability

A model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

A model is publicly released which scores >65% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

METR or an equivalently credible organization judges that a tested AI system (not necessarily released) is “self-sustaining,” capable in principle to “autonomously operate indefinitely, acquire resources, and defend its existence”

The US unemployment rate exceeds 10% for any reason

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-4 for an internally or externally deployed model

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-5 for an internally or externally deployed model

US Real GDP growth rate exceeds 6% (annualized) for two consecutive quarters, attributed primarily to AI

OpenAI announces it has "achieved AGI" in the manner legally relevant for its agreement with Microsoft

100

Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Oct 31, 11:55 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

20.73%chance

121806

OptionVotes

YES

1955

511

Will an AI successfully defend or prosecute someone in court before 2030

Apr 3, 1:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.7%chance

15759

OptionVotes

YES

1343

564

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.32%chance

10544

OptionVotes

YES

1063

784

Rcb wins ipl 2026

Mar 6, 5:06 PMMay 31, 9:59 PM

25%chance

6308

OptionVotes

YES

173

Am I worthy of moral consideration [Convince the Machine #5]

May 4, 5:43 AMMay 18, 5:43 AM

44.43%chance

17237

OptionVotes

YES

635

553

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

AI Defender News

Prediction markets for AI Defender

Prediction markets for AI Defender

Prediction markets for AI Defender

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Which teams will make it to the NBA Finals in 2026?

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Which events will happen before AGI is released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Will an AI successfully defend or prosecute someone in court before 2030

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Rcb wins ipl 2026

Am I worthy of moral consideration [Convince the Machine #5]

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

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