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Prediction markets for AI Defense

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.08%chance

18928440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

982

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

36.86%chance

473297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1443

1123

The US becomes much more like shadowrun by the end of 2025

Jan 3, 8:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7.25%chance

93101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3577

280

Will King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard return to Spotify in 2025?

Aug 11, 3:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.4%chance

101617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1916

522

Will Boeing and Airbus divest their space divisions in 2025? (Prediction from a $150M VC firm)

Jan 24, 12:52 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

29.8%chance

9958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

651

Which positive news will make 2025 world-wide headlines?

Jan 4, 4:58 PMJan 11, 10:59 PM

11879

OptionProbability

Space Exploration

Technology

Medical/Healthcare

Fundamental research

Geopolitics

Environment and sustainability

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

Society

Art and culture

Human Rights

Economy

79

73

67

65

65

59

50

50

45

45

35

Which popular websites will be conquered by the bots by the end of 2025?

Apr 26, 11:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17697

OptionProbability

LinkedIn

YouTube

TikTok

Reddit

Twitch

Discord

Wikipedia

73

54

48

41

33

33

16

By the end of 2025, will a NATO country announce that it will use AI for military defense decisions?

Jul 28, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.33%chance

11436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

538

19

Will generative artificial intelligence be banned in at least one G7 country by the end of 2026?

Jul 29, 2:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

12407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Will an AI be capable of substituting for a high-quality criminal defense lawyer before 2030?

Mar 20, 1:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.89%chance

10240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

162

Public opinion, late 2025: Out-of-control AI becoming a threat to humanity, a real threat?

Nov 27, 4:03 AMNov 2, 3:59 AM

5111

OptionProbability

Higher than 2024 (>60%)

Lower than 2024 (<60%)

72

28

Will the US fund defensive information security R&D for limiting unintended proliferation of dangerous AI models by 2028

Apr 28, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.47%chance

5105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

115

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