AI Diffusion News

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1110587

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

6181

6090

Which events will happen before AGI is released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 3:09 PMJan 1, 3:46 PM

93627

OptionProbability

A model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

A model is publicly released which scores >65% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

METR or an equivalently credible organization judges that a tested AI system (not necessarily released) is “self-sustaining,” capable in principle to “autonomously operate indefinitely, acquire resources, and defend its existence”

The US unemployment rate exceeds 10% for any reason

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-4 for an internally or externally deployed model

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-5 for an internally or externally deployed model

US Real GDP growth rate exceeds 6% (annualized) for two consecutive quarters, attributed primarily to AI

OpenAI announces it has "achieved AGI" in the manner legally relevant for its agreement with Microsoft

100

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Jan 23, 9:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.44%chance

531613

OptionVotes

YES

1214

837

Pourrait il avoir un attentat au USA pendant la coupe du monde 2026?

Jun 19, 1:47 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

20.7%chance

91361

OptionVotes

YES

1957

511

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.85%chance

131165

OptionVotes

YES

1533

652

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

26.66%chance

51141

OptionVotes

YES

1659

603

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035?

Dec 4, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.62%chance

7955

OptionVotes

YES

1715

583

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

51.46%chance

12934

OptionVotes

YES

1032

975

Global AI Diffusion Rate ≥ [X]% by End of Q4 2026

May 14, 7:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

4320

OptionProbability

20%

30%

None of the above

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Will MoMA acquire a major generative AI artwork before 2027?

Feb 16, 11:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51%chance

10188

OptionVotes

YES

102

[Carlini questions] Will we still use (slight modifications of) transformer-based LLMs we currently use

Mar 24, 2:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7109

OptionProbability

On Jan 1st 2027

On Jan 1st 2030

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By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Which events will happen before AGI is released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Pourrait il avoir un attentat au USA pendant la coupe du monde 2026?

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035?

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Global AI Diffusion Rate ≥ [X]% by End of Q4 2026

Will MoMA acquire a major generative AI artwork before 2027?

[Carlini questions] Will we still use (slight modifications of) transformer-based LLMs we currently use

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