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Prediction markets for AI Drive

Will a country ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving in at least one city center by the end of 2040?

Mar 18, 10:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

453877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

991

968

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Which country will be the first to ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving cars in their capital city?

Mar 18, 10:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

341112

OptionProbability

Other

Singapore

France

China

Germany

Japan

South Korea

USA

Qatar

Iceland

Moldova

North Korea

Estonia

58

21

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

0

AI: Self-Driving Majority of Miles by 2028

Mar 17, 9:06 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.02%chance

9684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

420

138

AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉

Apr 1, 11:18 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

6.17%chance

12628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1385

915

AI-driven tool capable of modifying binary executables per user prompt available by January 1, 2028

Nov 26, 1:52 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

29%chance

8381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

When will AI autonomously build and deploys a production ML system that drives business decisions

Feb 25, 4:47 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

2343

OptionProbability

>=2032

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

24

14

14

14

14

9

9

What will be the established name for the phenomenon of AI-driven job loss?

Jun 1, 4:59 PMJan 1, 5:53 PM

8306

OptionProbability

No convergence on a term by EOY 2027

The Jobpocalypse

Other

AI job displacement

The Great Automation

Jobquake(s)

40

28

24

4

2

2

By 2027, will an AI-driven robot (maybe humanoid) conduct a full symphony orchestra in a live public performance?

May 19, 3:42 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

20.05%chance

12189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

168

AI: When will a phone out-drive a human?

Dec 13, 7:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

42.07%chance

8188

OptionProbability

NO

YES

371

314

AI: Self-Driving Majority of Miles by 2040

Mar 17, 9:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60%chance

8134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

208

137

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

17

17

17

17

17

17

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