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Prediction markets for AI Editor

Will Wikipedia accept prediction markets as a source before 2030?

Dec 29, 3:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30%chance

7317671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

462

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Jul 12, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.87%chance

7513433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

637

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

36.31%chance

5711924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

643

By when will Wikipedia stop considering Gaza a genocide?

Oct 18, 9:15 PMJan 1, 10:13 PM

765132

OptionProbability

Before 2045

Before 2050

Before 2040

It will always consider Gaza a Genocide

Before 2035

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2027

Before 2026

67

60

58

52

34

10

10

10

8

1

AI generated text will be permitted without restriction at all 10 of the highest ranked universities by the end of the decade (<2030)

Dec 24, 8:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.78%chance

533458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2273

788

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

181963

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

14

When will most emails be proofread by AI?

Feb 6, 12:17 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

30.22%chance

221354

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1275

794

When will human literary translators become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

12.84%chance

211146

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1153

1050

Which AI code editor will be the most popular EOY2026?

May 6, 5:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25992

OptionProbability

Visual Studio Code (w/ Github Copilot or any other built-in)

Any code editor + CLI tools (such as Claude Code, OpenAI Codex)

Other

Visual Studio Code (w/ 3rd party agent)

Cursor

Zed

Antigravity

Windsurf

Firebase Studio

33

22

15

11

9

5

4

0

0

By when will Wikipedia remove Gaza from "list of genocides"?

Oct 18, 3:19 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16718

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2045

Before 2040

Before 2035

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

37

27

21

20

18

17

13

12

4

[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2027

Mar 24, 2:04 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7438

OptionProbability

0

1 - 5

6 - 10

11 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 100

101 - 500

Above 500

93

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2030

Mar 24, 2:05 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6292

OptionProbability

0

1 - 5

Above 500

6 - 10

11 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 100

101 - 500

63

18

4

3

3

3

3

3

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