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Prediction markets for AI Employees

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Feb 19, 7:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

46.53%chance

15714816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2205

2197

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1411132

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

62

53

43

29

10

5

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

15.68%chance

526622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4993

1363

Does the Q in Q* stand for either Q-Learning or Q-Values

Nov 23, 3:59 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

72.33%chance

352573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

900

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?

Oct 7, 9:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

242152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

983

Will OpenAI become nothing by 2030?

May 18, 7:46 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

231906

OptionProbability

The scandal is forgotten without major change

OpenAI significantly changes their NDA policy

Sam Altman stops being CEO of OpenAI

The government takes action against OpenAI

OpenAI as an organization disintegrates into irrelevancy

The NDAs grow into a major popular backlash against OpenAI

64

61

60

58

20

15

Will half of the S&P 500 enforce wide adoption of AI tools by employees by EOY 2026?

Dec 30, 7:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.76%chance

101384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1896

527

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2030?

Oct 7, 9:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.8%chance

181218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1557

929

Is Anthropic's "Confidential Investor" Elon Musk?

Apr 11, 2:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.49%chance

171091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1445

884

Will there be an attempt of murder of an OpenAI employee due to AI repulsion before 2050?

May 17, 4:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.38%chance

9802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1190

840

Will ZeroPath be inactive by 2028 (excl. acquisition)?

Jul 15, 9:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.39%chance

18800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10042

9970

Will JPMorgan force their employees to use generative AI for analyses, reports or other work in 2026?

Dec 31, 6:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.88%chance

5336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

985

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