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Prediction markets for AI Employees

Did DOGE cause a data breach during 2025?

Feb 7, 3:17 AMJun 30, 5:18 PM

10%chance

12519566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Feb 19, 7:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.51%chance

17316770

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2812

1659

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1511432

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

63

54

42

28

9

5

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.16%chance

2711352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6226

197

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

15.73%chance

536624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4982

1365

Will ZeroPath (YC S24) be inactive by 2028 (excl. acquisition)?

Jul 15, 9:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.08%chance

293839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13028

8892

Does the Q in Q* stand for either Q-Learning or Q-Values

Nov 23, 3:59 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

72.33%chance

352573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

900

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?

Oct 7, 9:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

242152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

983

Will half of the S&P 500 enforce wide adoption of AI tools by employees by EOY 2026?

Dec 30, 7:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.25%chance

141541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2048

488

Will JPMorgan force their employees to use generative AI for analyses, reports or other work in 2026?

Dec 31, 6:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.79%chance

111138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

898

Will Idaho House Bill 752 (A trans bathroom bill) be enacted into law?

Mar 22, 7:59 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

76.1%chance

5980

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1785

560

Will there be an attempt of murder of an OpenAI employee due to AI repulsion before 2050?

May 17, 4:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.38%chance

9802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1190

840

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