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Prediction markets for AI Employees

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1922408

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

64

56

44

28

7

1

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Feb 19, 7:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

58.17%chance

17416820

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2741

1709

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

98.06%chance

3016238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7631

163

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

26.5%chance

617440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3369

1782

Will ZeroPath (YC S24) be inactive by 2028 (excl. acquisition)?

Jul 15, 9:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.59%chance

294095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12773

8970

Does the Q in Q* stand for either Q-Learning or Q-Values

Nov 23, 3:59 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

72.33%chance

352573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

900

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

32.61%chance

132198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5611

2917

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?

Oct 7, 9:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

242152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

983

Will half of the S&P 500 enforce wide adoption of AI tools by employees by EOY 2026?

Dec 30, 7:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.8%chance

151551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1670

98

Will JPMorgan force their employees to use generative AI for analyses, reports or other work in 2026?

Dec 31, 6:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.57%chance

111235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

939

Is Anthropic's "Confidential Investor" Elon Musk?

Apr 11, 2:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.4%chance

181106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

882

Will there be an attempt of murder of an OpenAI employee due to AI repulsion before 2050?

May 17, 4:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.38%chance

9802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1190

840

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