AI Enabler News

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7.64%chance

3929523

OptionVotes

YES

34769

2876

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.65%chance

909454

OptionVotes

YES

1388

1323

Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?

Oct 20, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.69%chance

676680

OptionVotes

YES

1071

884

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

74.21%chance

653604

OptionVotes

YES

1758

1048

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

1075

815

What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Mar 25, 10:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

632931

OptionProbability

A. Death by paperclips, eternal torment of all humans by AI, or similar unalignment catastrophe.

F. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. People not forced into mind-uploads or experience machines. General perception that AI has made life more meaningful/fulfilling&improved the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.

I. AI soon hits fundamental scaling laws and we go into another AI winter.

G. AI development continues but doesn't change things too much, somehow. Most jobs, even low-level white collar jobs, don't get impacted too hard, as new work is found to replace newly automated work. Labor force participation remains high.

B. Governments and/or other powerful entities use AI as a tool of repression, enabling global techno-totalitarianism along the model of China during Zero Covid or worse.

C. AI doesn't actively want to hurt us, but (possibly aided by transhumanists) they become obsessed with utility maximization and force us all into mind-uploads and/or experience machines to free up resources for more computronium.

H. Humanity coordinates to prevent the development of significantly more powerful AIs.

D. AI wipes out most white-collar jobs within a decade and most blue-collar jobs within a generation; powerful humans and/or AIs at least seriously consider disposing of the "useless eaters" en masse, us being powerless to resist.

E. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. No disposing of the human masses, but general perception that AI has made life less meaningful/fulfilling & significantly worsened the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?

Oct 7, 9:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

242152

OptionVotes

YES

999

983

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131706

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

Will AI or other tech be usable by the public to enable lucid dreaming by 2027?

Oct 9, 12:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.55%chance

261430

OptionVotes

YES

1051

776

Will I believe my prediction about AI enabling more SWEs to solve less lucrative problems by shrinking team sizes to have been fulfilled by EoY 2030

Jan 6, 5:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.12%chance

7219

OptionVotes

YES

184

127

Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?

Jan 17, 3:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

19.5%chance

8142

OptionVotes

YES

458

289

Will "AI-enabled coups: a small group could use AI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 27, 5:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

1000

AI Enabler News

Prediction markets for AI Enabler

Prediction markets for AI Enabler

Prediction markets for AI Enabler

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Will AI or other tech be usable by the public to enable lucid dreaming by 2027?

Will I believe my prediction about AI enabling more SWEs to solve less lucrative problems by shrinking team sizes to have been fulfilled by EoY 2030

Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?

Will "AI-enabled coups: a small group could use AI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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