AI Essentials News

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 16, 5:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.35%chance

32448387

OptionVotes

YES

9567

1323

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.69%chance

11228631

OptionVotes

YES

1816

552

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Apr 20, 12:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.11%chance

836987

OptionVotes

YES

1862

1047

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.72%chance

205734

OptionVotes

YES

4744

1120

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.29%chance

464116

OptionVotes

YES

2622

208

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

14.47%chance

223780

OptionVotes

YES

2380

283

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

53421

OptionProbability

Gallium

Germanium

Neodymium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Jun 22, 3:16 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52.83%chance

181437

OptionVotes

YES

1093

868

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

YES

1017

852

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.06%chance

3526

OptionVotes

YES

1521

836

Will Google AI studio still exist as a product offering in 3 years?

Jun 20, 6:22 PMJun 22, 3:59 AM

57.95%chance

7306

OptionVotes

YES

1174

852

What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?

Apr 12, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

242

OptionProbability

Not broken by 2030

Quantum computational (Shor's algorithm or variant requiring quantum hardware)

AI / Classical mathematical breakthrough (runs on classical hardware)

AI-accelerated quantum hybrid (AI reduces the problem, quantum hardware still essential)

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Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass

Will Google AI studio still exist as a product offering in 3 years?

What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?

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