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Prediction markets for AI Evaluation Service

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33264

2509

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?

Mar 10, 12:37 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.91%chance

734737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1391

1188

What will I be diagnosed with?

Apr 28, 10:16 AMOct 22, 9:20 AM

211517

OptionProbability

Autism

ADHD

Attachment Disorder

Dysthymia

C-PDSD

Personality Disorder

Intellectual giftedness (130+ IQ)

Substance Use Disorder

Bipolar Disorder

Long COVID

87

86

75

51

38

31

28

23

17

11

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

131199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1689

592

Will a Waymo self-driving car be involved in a fatal accident before July 1, 2026?

Apr 27, 9:11 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

13.98%chance

19515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7394

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2025

2029

2030 or later

Other

43

27

20

3

2

2

2

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5194

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

56

51

30

24

22

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