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AI Security Takes Center Stage at Black Hat 2025
Authors
12
3 days ago
Prediction markets for AI Exposure
Prediction markets for AI Exposure
[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?
Jul 5, 12:41 PM
Dec 30, 11:59 PM
20.47%
chance
35
12403
Option
Votes
YES
NO
19709
5074
Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?
Jun 10, 7:27 PM
Jun 11, 3:59 AM
40.38%
chance
13
1556
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1215
823
Will the markov.bio AI copilot for drug discovery be influential in the R&D of a marketed drug? (Before 2030)
Sep 11, 11:37 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
8%
chance
9
570
Option
Votes
YES
NO
445
109
Will the FDA approve a fully autonomous robotic surgery device before 2030?
Oct 24, 3:32 AM
Dec 31, 3:01 PM
21%
chance
10
384
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1063
957
AI creates more jobs than it eliminates worldwide by 2030?
Jun 26, 9:43 AM
Dec 31, 9:41 AM
30%
chance
9
162
Option
Votes
YES
NO
153
65
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