AI for Science News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

59065

10415

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.4%chance

5811987

OptionVotes

YES

2262

219

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

YES

1461

556

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Feb 19, 9:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

11.92%chance

284965

OptionVotes

YES

2723

368

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

3864

3220

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

1123

765

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

Oct 31, 5:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2195

OptionProbability

Magnushammer: A Transformer-Based Approach to Premise Selection

llmstep: LLM proofstep suggestions in Lean

AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discovery

AI for Mathematics: A Cognitive Science Perspective

100

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

May 22, 11:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

3180

OptionProbability

Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work

Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)

Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks

Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues

Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery

Benchmark Gap #5: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, will it be less than two years before AI models are used as entry-level data science / data analysis / statistics workers?

Dec 20, 8:34 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.1%chance

8143

OptionVotes

YES

201

178

Will I get ED CMU SCS 2026

Dec 17, 12:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.99%chance

242

OptionVotes

YES

1020

980

Will Alphabet Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 2.0

2.0 - 2.5

2.5 - 3.0

3.0 - 3.5

3.5-4.0

Above 4.0

AI for Science News

Prediction markets for AI for Science

Prediction markets for AI for Science

Prediction markets for AI for Science

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

Benchmark Gap #5: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, will it be less than two years before AI models are used as entry-level data science / data analysis / statistics workers?

Will I get ED CMU SCS 2026

Will Alphabet Emissions end at?

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