AI for Science News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

25141

17457

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.47%chance

335126206

OptionVotes

YES

6451

596

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.98%chance

1923681

OptionVotes

YES

22111

4523

Will I complete my economics Bachelor's degree at the University of Bonn in 3 years. [Ṁ1337 liquidity subsidy]

Nov 19, 1:57 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

90.2%chance

185249

OptionVotes

YES

4897

736

What will happen to OpenAI next year?

Oct 9, 1:48 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

282345

OptionProbability

support over million token context window by 2025

promise more work on ai-safety

fund a AI for Science research

successfully transit to a for-profit after Hinton blamed Altman

make its own ai chip, compiler and software full training stack?

100

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Feb 19, 9:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.3%chance

151979

OptionVotes

YES

1384

723

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

3864

3220

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

1123

765

New York State RAISE Act becomes law?

Jun 24, 3:01 AMJan 2, 4:01 AM

58.63%chance

6200

OptionVotes

YES

3690

3340

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

Oct 31, 5:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2195

OptionProbability

Magnushammer: A Transformer-Based Approach to Premise Selection

AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discovery

llmstep: LLM proofstep suggestions in Lean

AI for Mathematics: A Cognitive Science Perspective

Benchmark Gap #5: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, will it be less than two years before AI models are used as entry-level data science / data analysis / statistics workers?

Dec 20, 8:34 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.1%chance

8143

OptionVotes

YES

201

178

AI for Science News

Prediction markets for AI for Science

Prediction markets for AI for Science

Prediction markets for AI for Science

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Will I complete my economics Bachelor's degree at the University of Bonn in 3 years. [Ṁ1337 liquidity subsidy]

What will happen to OpenAI next year?

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

New York State RAISE Act becomes law?

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

Benchmark Gap #5: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, will it be less than two years before AI models are used as entry-level data science / data analysis / statistics workers?

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