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Prediction markets for AI for Science

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

12.89%chance

802477063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

48198

11766

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1.52%chance

348176056

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15762

192

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.57%chance

2969603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16623

6016

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.67%chance

5811984

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2244

222

New York State RAISE Act becomes law?

Jun 24, 3:01 AMJan 2, 4:01 AM

48.9%chance

1910863

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3967

2960

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

556

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Feb 19, 9:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

11.41%chance

163794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2787

359

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

25

9

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

Oct 31, 5:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2195

OptionProbability

Magnushammer: A Transformer-Based Approach to Premise Selection

AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discovery

llmstep: LLM proofstep suggestions in Lean

AI for Mathematics: A Cognitive Science Perspective

50

50

8

6

Benchmark Gap #5: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, will it be less than two years before AI models are used as entry-level data science / data analysis / statistics workers?

Dec 20, 8:34 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.1%chance

8143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

178

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