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Prediction markets for AI Fund

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.98%chance

1923681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22111

4523

What will happen to OpenAI next year?

Oct 9, 1:48 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

272215

OptionProbability

support over million token context window by 2025

promise more work on ai-safety

fund a AI for Science research

successfully transit to a for-profit after Hinton blamed Altman

make its own ai chip, compiler and software full training stack?

100

73

41

28

11

AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions

May 1, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.82%chance

221268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

945

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion, according to funding?

Jan 8, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.53%chance

16890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

312

80

Will non-profit funding for AI safety reach 100 billion US dollars in a year before 2030?

Nov 14, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.14%chance

5562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1274

785

Will any lawmakers use the threat of AI to justify funding space exploration before 2026?

Apr 22, 5:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.26%chance

16500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

975

Was there ever a memo of OpenAI leadership discussing selling to the Russian government to fund AI development?

Jun 4, 6:55 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.71%chance

6390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

592

299

Will National Governments Collectively Give More than $100M a year in funding for AI Alignment by 2030?

Dec 15, 9:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

81.15%chance

9237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

428

168

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

What will Harvey (Legal AI funded by OpenAI) be valued at in their next round/deal? (in millions)

Dec 20, 11:44 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.58%chance

6135

OptionProbability

NO

YES

335

92

Will the US fund defensive information security R&D for limiting unintended proliferation of dangerous AI models by 2028

Apr 28, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.47%chance

5105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

115

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

191

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