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Prediction markets for AI Fund

Will a16z have a dedicated AI safety fund before 2030?

Sep 27, 8:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.11%chance

111508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2282

438

Will any lawmakers use the threat of AI to justify funding space exploration before 2026?

Apr 22, 5:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.63%chance

181450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1945

783

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion, according to funding?

Jan 8, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.5%chance

211327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

437

34

AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions

May 1, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.85%chance

241283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

960

Will non-profit funding for AI safety reach 100 billion US dollars in a year before 2030?

Nov 14, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.14%chance

5562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1274

785

What dollar amount of grants will Coefficient Giving's Navigating Transformative AI fund list in 2026?

Apr 12, 8:47 AMApr 12, 10:59 PM

2510

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 10,000,000

Above 20,000,000

Above 30,000,000

Above 40,000,000

Above 50,000,000

99

92

89

85

80

75

Was there ever a memo of OpenAI leadership discussing selling to the Russian government to fund AI development?

Jun 4, 6:55 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.71%chance

6390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

592

299

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.23%chance

16261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

994

Will National Governments Collectively Give More than $100M a year in funding for AI Alignment by 2030?

Dec 15, 9:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

81.15%chance

9237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

428

168

Which funds will blow up after the October 2026 AI selloff?

Oct 17, 5:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7188

OptionProbability

Blue Owl

VARA (Value Aligned Research Advisors)

Situational Awareness LP

Jane Street

Hudson River Trading (HRT)

44

15

10

3

2

Will the US fund defensive information security R&D for limiting unintended proliferation of dangerous AI models by 2028

Apr 28, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.47%chance

5105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

115

Will the second Trump administration fund AI?

Oct 7, 9:02 PMJan 20, 11:00 AM

75%chance

541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

79

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