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Prediction markets for AI Fund

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.57%chance

324859502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7349

3560

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.6%chance

2019659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18647

5382

AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions

May 1, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.82%chance

221268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

945

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion, according to funding?

Jan 8, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75%chance

201127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

377

49

Will any lawmakers use the threat of AI to justify funding space exploration before 2026?

Apr 22, 5:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.08%chance

17700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

918

Will non-profit funding for AI safety reach 100 billion US dollars in a year before 2030?

Nov 14, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.14%chance

5562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1274

785

When will a single AI system demonstrate autonomous expert-level performance across 3+ fundamentally different domains?

Feb 28, 1:53 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9450

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2039

Before Dec 2035

Before Dec 2032

Before Dec 2029

Before Oct 2028

Before Apr 2028

Before Oct 2027

Before Apr 2027

Before Oct 2026

84

76

56

48

46

38

28

18

11

Was there ever a memo of OpenAI leadership discussing selling to the Russian government to fund AI development?

Jun 4, 6:55 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.71%chance

6390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

592

299

Will National Governments Collectively Give More than $100M a year in funding for AI Alignment by 2030?

Dec 15, 9:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

81.15%chance

9237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

428

168

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will the US fund defensive information security R&D for limiting unintended proliferation of dangerous AI models by 2028

Apr 28, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.47%chance

5105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

115

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

191

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