AI Hacking as News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19543852

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

29364

2889

What will be the best GSOBench score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1312420

OptionProbability

70-80%

60-70%

50-60%

40-50%

80-90%

≥90%

30-40%

<30%

Will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets targeting timelines under 100 years be above 50%?

Jun 4, 12:37 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

16.87%chance

211789

OptionVotes

YES

1398

837

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

73.84%chance

151472

OptionVotes

YES

1936

988

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

86.78%chance

221450

OptionVotes

YES

2411

1180

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

28.12%chance

121007

OptionVotes

YES

1703

1017

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

YES

1118

699

Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1)

Apr 8, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

13842

OptionVotes

YES

1528

655

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

60.73%chance

18676

OptionVotes

YES

1740

1045

Will manifold introduce LLM-based spam detection by EOY 2026?

Feb 17, 2:03 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

43.2%chance

10493

OptionVotes

YES

1147

872

If there is AI Doom by 2030, the largest human casualties will be a result of...

Nov 29, 9:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7185

OptionProbability

Bio-Risk

other

Drones

Paperclipped

"AI gets the nuclear codes"

Disruption of global food supply chain

AI doomer data center airstrike starts WW3 + nuclear winter

AI hacking takes down global communications networks

Chemical attack

Machines boil oceans as heatsink for compute

AI Hacking as News

Prediction markets for AI Hacking as

Prediction markets for AI Hacking as

Prediction markets for AI Hacking as

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

What will be the best GSOBench score by Dec 31, 2026?

Will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets targeting timelines under 100 years be above 50%?

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1)

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Will manifold introduce LLM-based spam detection by EOY 2026?

If there is AI Doom by 2030, the largest human casualties will be a result of...

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