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Prediction markets for AI Hacking as

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6597394

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

@retr0id

@vi

@Quroe

@Bandors

@zhengkyl

@Eternal

@Cy

@8my41

@astroblob

@AlirezaAfshan

@AtharvPatil

Pat Scott @Stralor

@Celene

50

26

23

22

18

15

15

14

13

11

10

10

1

0

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.67%chance

8149972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28379

3002

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.63%chance

2733820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24158

4139

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.2%chance

17132633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14073

7523

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

86.42%chance

202731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3438

502

Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1)

Apr 8, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.43%chance

201739

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1407

711

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

75.2%chance

181556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2020

959

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

86.78%chance

241458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2411

1180

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

28.12%chance

121007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1017

If there is AI Doom by 2030, the largest human casualties will be a result of...

Nov 29, 9:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10297

OptionProbability

other

Bio-Risk

Drones

Paperclipped

"AI gets the nuclear codes"

Chemical attack

Machines boil oceans as heatsink for compute

Disruption of global food supply chain

AI doomer data center airstrike starts WW3 + nuclear winter

AI hacking takes down global communications networks

38

31

8

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will a major bank get hacked by AI in 2026?

Aug 31, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.45%chance

898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

74

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.76%chance

173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

91

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