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Prediction markets for AI Hacking as

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6597859

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

@retr0id

@vi

@Bandors

@zhengkyl

@Eternal

@Cy

@8my41

@astroblob

@AlirezaAfshan

@AtharvPatil

@Quroe

@Celene

Pat Scott @Stralor

50

25

20

18

15

15

14

13

11

10

10

0

0

0

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.7%chance

3134762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25099

3984

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.54%chance

17534125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14201

7469

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

88.4%chance

202776

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3750

457

Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1)

Apr 8, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.43%chance

201739

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1407

711

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

75.2%chance

181556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2020

959

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

86.78%chance

241458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2411

1180

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

28.12%chance

121007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1017

Will a major bank get hacked by AI in 2026?

Aug 31, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.69%chance

24910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

51

Will an AI agent at OpenAI, Anthropic, or GDM hack one of the other two labs to steal its research before July 2027?

Oct 2, 1:01 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

29.2%chance

8691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

852

If there is AI Doom by 2030, the largest human casualties will be a result of...

Nov 29, 9:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12337

OptionProbability

Bio-Risk

other

Drones

"AI gets the nuclear codes"

Disruption of global food supply chain

AI doomer data center airstrike starts WW3 + nuclear winter

AI hacking takes down global communications networks

Paperclipped

Chemical attack

Machines boil oceans as heatsink for compute

46

30

6

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.76%chance

173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

91

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