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Prediction markets for AI Hacking as

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

What will be the best GSOBench score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1110745

OptionProbability

70-80%

60-70%

50-60%

40-50%

80-90%

≥90%

30-40%

<30%

21

20

16

12

12

9

7

2

Will the NBER Announce the US is in recession during 2025 by Q2 2026?

May 29, 8:55 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

2%chance

162451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

26

Will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets targeting timelines under 100 years be above 50%?

Jun 4, 12:37 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

16.87%chance

211789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1398

837

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

73.84%chance

151472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1936

988

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

86.78%chance

221450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2411

1180

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

28.12%chance

121007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1017

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1)

Apr 8, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

13842

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

60.73%chance

18676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1740

1045

How much will AI advances impact EA research effectiveness, by 2030?

Aug 25, 9:10 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

12340

OptionProbability

Dramatic Gain (+100% to +1000%)

Medium Gain (+20% to +100%)

Enormous Gain (>+1000%)

Roughly Neutral (-20% to +20%)

Medium Loss (-100% to -20%)

Dramatic Loss (<-100%)

38

27

20

13

2

1

If there is AI Doom by 2030, the largest human casualties will be a result of...

Nov 29, 9:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7185

OptionProbability

Bio-Risk

other

Drones

Paperclipped

"AI gets the nuclear codes"

Disruption of global food supply chain

AI doomer data center airstrike starts WW3 + nuclear winter

AI hacking takes down global communications networks

Chemical attack

Machines boil oceans as heatsink for compute

33

28

10

6

4

4

4

4

3

3

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