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Prediction markets for AI Image

Will AI replace radiologists as the main reporter of clinical images in the USA (without human oversight) before 2050?

Mar 5, 11:37 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

89.81%chance

292580

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2104

768

Which AI-generated images will Trump or official US accounts share during his second term?

May 7, 9:21 AMDec 20, 11:59 AM

262020

OptionProbability

Trump as Superman

Trump as an astronaut

Trump as a cowboy

Trump as a pilot

Trump as a wizard.

Trump as a Spartan

Trump as a scientist

Trump as Dalai Lama.

Trump as a lion.

Trump as the God-Emperor of Mankind.

100

71

56

45

31

26

25

13

11

6

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

57%chance

11831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

872

Before 2028, dating app users will commonly have AI-generated younger/hotter images of themselves on their profiles

Apr 13, 9:05 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

92.96%chance

3301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

36

As a rough guess what % of images that we see in a day will be AI in Jan 2029?

Feb 29, 3:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.08%chance

6136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

176

Will Google add AI image generation as an option to Google Images by the end of 2026?

Sep 25, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.06%chance

8118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

639

571

AI generates better alt text for 90% of test images by June 30, 2026?

Mar 30, 9:39 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

65.41%chance

881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

73

By 2030, one-shot learning allows AI to recognize new objects in diverse settings from a single image?

Jan 5, 10:51 AMDec 31, 8:00 AM

73.61%chance

165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

84

30

Will inference-time scaling improve the generation of images with correct geometric shapes? (in generative AI)

Dec 30, 2:10 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

64.65%chance

345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

74

By 2028, AI will be able to classify images of unseen objects into groups, having trained on a similar distinct dataset?

Jan 5, 10:48 AMJan 12, 7:41 AM

74.18%chance

341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

47

Benchmark Gap #7: Once 10% of the medical Grand Challenges are "solved", how many months will it be before AI are in common use in hospitals for analyzing medical images with minimal human oversight?

Feb 8, 10:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.62%chance

225

OptionProbability

NO

YES

295

276

Twitter + Ai Image Generation + Bitmoji integration by end 2027

Nov 1, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.25%chance

17

OptionVotes

YES

NO

55

45

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