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Prediction markets for AI Index

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.91%chance

405138827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3199

313

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18571502

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

Other

Google

Meta

DeepSeek

Alibaba

55

38

2

2

1

1

1

1

Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

28.34%chance

315114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6634

3859

Generation Starship By 2150

Jul 4, 1:37 PMJul 31, 6:30 PM

44.34%chance

323357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29765

27549

When will an AI Model first score >= 170 on the Epoch Capabilities Index?

Aug 30, 1:42 AMApr 1, 10:59 PM

133117

OptionProbability

December 2026

November 2026

October 2026

September 2026

January 2027

February 2027

March 2027

Other

44

28

14

3

3

2

2

2

What will be the highest reported Remote Labor Index (RLI) AI automation rate by the end of each of the following years?

Oct 29, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62217

OptionProbability

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

87

86

84

83

79

40

4

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.9%chance

91750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2623

2468

Will any lab get a C grade for existential safety in the FLI's Winter 2026 AI Safety Index scorecard?

Jul 8, 4:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.22%chance

7436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

What grade will Anthropic get for existential safety in the FLI's AI Safety Index Winter 2026?

Jul 8, 5:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3416

OptionProbability

D- or above

D or above

D+ or above

C- or above

B- or above

98

93

61

45

34

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

What grade will OpenAI get for existential safety in the FLI's AI Safety Index Winter 2026?

Jul 8, 7:08 PMMar 20, 11:59 PM

228

OptionProbability

D- or above

D or above

D+ or above

C- or above

B- or above

76

56

52

48

44

What grade will Z.ai get for existential safety in the FLI's AI Safety Index Winter 2026?

Jul 8, 7:09 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

212

OptionProbability

D- or above

D or above

D+ or above

C- or above

B- or above

54

51

49

46

44

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