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Prediction markets for AI Index

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1918907

OptionProbability

170-175

165-170

175-180

160-165

180-185

≥185

155-160

<155

23

21

18

13

9

9

4

2

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2018339

OptionProbability

20-30%

10-20%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

<10%

60-70%

70-80%

≥80%

24

20

18

11

7

6

6

5

4

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.73%chance

2517642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

604

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2113369

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

Meta

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Other

38

34

10

7

3

3

3

3

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

4710036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1884

531

Will US inflation go above 3% before unemployment goes below 4%?

Oct 4, 2:45 PMFeb 13, 1:59 PM

86.24%chance

739108

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2504

399

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.87%chance

253413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1906

534

What will be the highest reported Remote Labor Index (RLI) AI automation rate by the end of each of the following years?

Oct 29, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31667

OptionProbability

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

84

78

70

66

46

24

9

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

26.66%chance

51141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1659

603

Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?

Dec 6, 1:31 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.42%chance

16748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1664

878

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

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