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Prediction markets for AI Index

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.84%chance

395131749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2869

349

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3632789

OptionProbability

170-175

175-180

165-170

180-185

≥185

160-165

155-160

<155

32

30

12

11

7

5

2

1

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7625378

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

Meta

DeepSeek

xAI

Alibaba

Other

44

32

15

2

2

2

2

2

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52%chance

3720977

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

961

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2418649

OptionProbability

20-30%

10-20%

30-40%

40-50%

<10%

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

≥80%

26

20

16

10

7

7

6

5

4

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will Lauren Boebert be re-elected to the House in 2026?

Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.69%chance

113665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

669

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

263463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1956

520

S&P 500 hits 8000 in 2026?

May 27, 6:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.64%chance

113358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

893

What will be the highest reported Remote Labor Index (RLI) AI automation rate by the end of each of the following years?

Oct 29, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31667

OptionProbability

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

84

78

70

66

46

24

4

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

26.66%chance

51141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1659

603

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

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