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Prediction markets for AI Index

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.72%chance

401135875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3238

309

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3934507

OptionProbability

170-175

165-170

175-180

160-165

180-185

≥185

<155

155-160

31

26

20

7

7

6

1

1

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3133892

OptionProbability

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

20-30%

60-70%

70-80%

10-20%

≥80%

<10%

26

25

17

12

7

5

4

3

2

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8227119

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

Meta

xAI

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Other

42

37

13

2

2

1

1

1

What will be the highest reported Remote Labor Index (RLI) AI automation rate by the end of each of the following years?

Oct 29, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62217

OptionProbability

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

87

86

84

83

79

40

4

Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

32.38%chance

71100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6876

3303

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

7898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3466

2193

What grade will Anthropic get for existential safety in the FLI's AI Safety Index Winter 2026?

Jul 8, 5:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3416

OptionProbability

D- or above

D or above

D+ or above

C- or above

B- or above

98

93

61

45

34

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

Will any lab get a C grade for existential safety in the FLI's Winter 2026 AI Safety Index scorecard?

Jul 8, 4:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.47%chance

548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

What grade will OpenAI get for existential safety in the FLI's AI Safety Index Winter 2026?

Jul 8, 7:08 PMMar 20, 11:59 PM

228

OptionProbability

D- or above

D or above

D+ or above

C- or above

B- or above

76

56

52

48

44

What grade will Z.ai get for existential safety in the FLI's AI Safety Index Winter 2026?

Jul 8, 7:09 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

212

OptionProbability

D- or above

D or above

D+ or above

C- or above

B- or above

54

51

49

46

44

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