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Prediction markets for AI Index

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.86%chance

373118132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2394

418

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3228604

OptionProbability

170-175

175-180

165-170

180-185

≥185

160-165

<155

155-160

29

26

17

11

9

6

2

2

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.75%chance

3019292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1537

651

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2318485

OptionProbability

20-30%

10-20%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

<10%

60-70%

70-80%

≥80%

26

19

17

11

7

6

6

5

4

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2914664

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

Anthropic

xAI

DeepSeek

Meta

Alibaba

Other

34

30

22

5

3

2

2

2

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

263463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1956

520

Will Lauren Boebert be re-elected to the House in 2026?

Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65%chance

92184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

698

What will be the highest reported Remote Labor Index (RLI) AI automation rate by the end of each of the following years?

Oct 29, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31667

OptionProbability

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

84

78

70

66

46

24

4

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

26.66%chance

51141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1659

603

Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?

Dec 6, 1:31 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.42%chance

16748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1664

878

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

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