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Prediction markets for AI Index

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3327

301

Will US inflation go above 3% before unemployment goes below 4%?

Oct 4, 2:45 PMAug 12, 9:59 AM

89.08%chance

536775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2855

350

Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?

Jun 11, 12:13 PMDec 11, 10:59 PM

9.29%chance

473605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1691

885

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.87%chance

222412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2144

466

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

26.66%chance

51141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1659

603

Will The NASDAQ Close above 20,000 on December 31st, 2025?

Jan 17, 8:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.83%chance

10922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?

Dec 6, 1:31 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.42%chance

16748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1664

878

Will Vix have a median close above 30 in 2033?

Feb 2, 6:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.49%chance

13391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

311

117

Will Vix hit 100 for at least 30 cumulative days by 2034?

Feb 2, 6:20 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11.17%chance

11327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

437

153

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

How much will Google Trends interest in AI consciousness change from Jan '24 to Jan '26?

Jan 28, 1:53 AMJan 25, 7:59 AM

6122

OptionProbability

>3x, <=10x

>10x

>1x, <=3x

>.3x, <=1x

<=0.3x

28

27

21

16

8

Will AI substitute journalists in digital media in USA, Europe or Latin America until the end of 2025?

Nov 20, 10:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

23.28%chance

493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

91

28

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