AI Index News

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19281731

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

Other

When will an AI Model first score >= 170 on the Epoch Capabilities Index?

Aug 30, 1:42 AMApr 1, 10:59 PM

309586

OptionProbability

November 2026

December 2026

October 2026

January 2027

February 2027

March 2027

Other

September 2026

Generation Starship By 2150

Jul 4, 1:37 PMJul 31, 6:30 PM

44.3%chance

363622

OptionVotes

YES

30796

28524

What will be the highest reported Remote Labor Index (RLI) AI automation rate by the end of each of the following years?

Oct 29, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62217

OptionProbability

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

Will any lab get a C grade for existential safety in the FLI's Winter 2026 AI Safety Index scorecard?

Jul 8, 4:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.22%chance

7436

OptionVotes

YES

102

What grade will Anthropic get for existential safety in the FLI's AI Safety Index Winter 2026?

Jul 8, 5:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3416

OptionProbability

D- or above

D or above

D+ or above

C- or above

B- or above

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

YES

242

126

Will any AI model score 60+ on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index by November 20, 2026?

Oct 23, 12:01 PMNov 20, 11:59 PM

85.65%chance

6151

OptionVotes

YES

220

Which lab will top Epoch AI's Capabilities Index (ECI) on November 30, 2026?

Oct 31, 2:58 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

7115

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google DeepMind

Other organization

What grade will OpenAI get for existential safety in the FLI's AI Safety Index Winter 2026?

Jul 8, 7:08 PMMar 20, 11:59 PM

228

OptionProbability

D- or above

D or above

D+ or above

C- or above

B- or above

What grade will Z.ai get for existential safety in the FLI's AI Safety Index Winter 2026?

Jul 8, 7:09 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

212

OptionProbability

D- or above

D or above

D+ or above

C- or above

B- or above

2027 Frontier AI Lab props

Oct 13, 2:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Will any single AI lab hold the #1 position on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index for at least 70 consecutive days during 2027?

Will Anthropic's Q4 2027 GAAP revenue exceed OpenAI's by >20%?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI report positive GAAP operating income in any quarter of 2027?

Will a lab other than OpenAI or Anthropic lead the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index for 30 consecutive days in 2027?

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Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

When will an AI Model first score >= 170 on the Epoch Capabilities Index?

Generation Starship By 2150

What will be the highest reported Remote Labor Index (RLI) AI automation rate by the end of each of the following years?

Will any lab get a C grade for existential safety in the FLI's Winter 2026 AI Safety Index scorecard?

What grade will Anthropic get for existential safety in the FLI's AI Safety Index Winter 2026?

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Will any AI model score 60+ on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index by November 20, 2026?

Which lab will top Epoch AI's Capabilities Index (ECI) on November 30, 2026?

What grade will OpenAI get for existential safety in the FLI's AI Safety Index Winter 2026?

What grade will Z.ai get for existential safety in the FLI's AI Safety Index Winter 2026?

2027 Frontier AI Lab props

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