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Prediction markets for AI Index Report

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.18%chance

430147138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2686

373

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6476034

OptionProbability

170-175

175-180

165-170

180-185

≥185

<155

155-160

160-165

65

21

6

4

2

1

1

1

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3234676

OptionProbability

30-40%

40-50%

20-30%

50-60%

60-70%

10-20%

70-80%

≥80%

<10%

33

23

14

13

6

4

4

3

2

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.94%chance

5326721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1690

592

What will be the highest reported Remote Labor Index (RLI) AI automation rate by the end of each of the following years?

Oct 29, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62217

OptionProbability

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

87

86

84

83

79

40

4

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $5 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2033?

Feb 3, 8:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

17.35%chance

221104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

46

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12484

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2025

2029

2030 or later

Other

66

17

11

2

1

1

1

Will BTC reach $85,000 by end of November 30, 2026?

Nov 1, 3:33 AMNov 30, 3:59 PM

21%chance

10280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?

May 14, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.3%chance

3154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

When will a study be conducted on the effects of DMT on cluster headaches, and if a study is done what will it find?

Oct 23, 11:41 AMJan 1, 12:36 PM

593

OptionProbability

Study that investigates short-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2040

Study conducted and released by 2035

Study that investigates long-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2030

85

75

65

58

34

Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?

Jul 6, 6:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

67

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