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Prediction markets for AI Index Report

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.01%chance

406138936

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3391

295

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5268480

OptionProbability

170-175

175-180

165-170

180-185

≥185

<155

155-160

160-165

63

15

13

4

2

1

1

1

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3134079

OptionProbability

40-50%

30-40%

50-60%

20-30%

60-70%

10-20%

70-80%

≥80%

<10%

26

24

18

12

6

4

4

3

2

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.23%chance

4724076

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

Will Lauren Boebert be re-elected to the House in 2026?

Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.01%chance

165122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

510

What will be the highest reported Remote Labor Index (RLI) AI automation rate by the end of each of the following years?

Oct 29, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62217

OptionProbability

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

87

86

84

83

79

40

4

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11475

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

2025

2029

Other

2030 or later

71

13

10

2

2

2

1

Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?

May 8, 3:47 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

13%chance

9380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

39

Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?

May 14, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.3%chance

3154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

When will a study be conducted on the effects of DMT on cluster headaches, and if a study is done what will it find?

Oct 23, 11:41 AMJan 1, 12:36 PM

593

OptionProbability

Study that investigates short-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2040

Study conducted and released by 2035

Study that investigates long-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2030

85

75

65

58

34

Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?

Jul 6, 6:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will Singapore rank higher than Hong Kong in the 2026 Fraser Institute Economic Freedom of the World Index?

Jul 18, 6:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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