AI Influencer News

Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?

Feb 17, 4:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.25%chance

244151415

OptionVotes

YES

1955

512

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.04%chance

25073005

OptionVotes

YES

7974

5489

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

33264

2509

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41239715

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?

Feb 1, 5:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

3.09%chance

124819

OptionVotes

YES

5494

Conditional on a negative consequence of AI that shocks governments into regulating AI occurring, what will it be?

Apr 24, 9:14 PMApr 24, 10:59 PM

773262

OptionProbability

An AI injuring or killing someone by accident

AIs taking jobs

An AI that appears friendly but then becomes treacherous and deceptive

Something porn-related

AIs attempting to covertly control or influence people or entities

An AI injuring or killing someone because it was told to

An AI injuring or killing someone because it decided to

An AI not being sufficiently woke

An AI escaping from safety confinement (an "AI box")

An AI created with malevolent goals, like ChaosGPT, becoming competent

An AI that devotes excessive amounts of resources to its goal, such as manufacturing paperclips

An AI that resists being switched off or destroyed

An AI that rewrites its own top-level goals

An AI that makes scientific advancements

An AI that is superintelligent and hence is uncontrollable, renders all jobs obsolete, and likely sees humans as inferior

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

1075

815

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

69.41%chance

742870

OptionVotes

YES

1697

989

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.54%chance

192063

OptionVotes

YES

800

Will this market be influenced by AI trading bots? (Language models trained by OpenAI: buy YES)

Aug 21, 5:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.11%chance

14413

OptionVotes

YES

1156

864

Will "You're an AI Expert – Not an Influencer" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 18, 9:54 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.85%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

1011

998

With in the decade the Will Be ai based Influencer personality with at least one million subscribers on YouTube or X?

Nov 8, 9:02 AMDec 15, 10:59 PM

74.29%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

170

AI Influencer News

Prediction markets for AI Influencer

Prediction markets for AI Influencer

Prediction markets for AI Influencer

Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?

Conditional on a negative consequence of AI that shocks governments into regulating AI occurring, what will it be?

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Will this market be influenced by AI trading bots? (Language models trained by OpenAI: buy YES)

Will "You're an AI Expert – Not an Influencer" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

With in the decade the Will Be ai based Influencer personality with at least one million subscribers on YouTube or X?

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