AI Infrastructure News

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

29.42%chance

6010049

OptionVotes

YES

5703

4805

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

26.5%chance

617440

OptionVotes

YES

3369

1782

AI "devops" #2: Will there be an AI that can help manage cloud infrastructure by 2030?

May 4, 9:06 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.28%chance

101893

OptionVotes

YES

1030

975

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?

Jun 1, 12:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37%chance

271615

OptionVotes

YES

1305

766

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

Sep 13, 11:40 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.74%chance

311584

OptionVotes

YES

1074

824

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Jan 12, 12:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

141561

OptionProbability

A private company declaration/statement (any company)

A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

AI-related cyberattack

Mass AI-driven job displacement event

A government declaration/statement (any country)

Reports about software

Reports about financial activity

Report about sociological observations

Report about economic observations

AI-related academic achievement

Attack on military target

Attack on civilian target

AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

A statement from an individual (human)

AI-related fake news

AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

Military activity / posture change

An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

AI-designed cyberweapon

AI makes prediction about future event

Open source model release

Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

Reports of aerial devices/machines

Reports of market activity

AI-related corruption scandal

AI-related theft

A new war between nation states

AI-related resignation

Reports of activity in online communities

Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

Reports of activity in open source software

A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

AI-related diplomacy

Reports about consumer activity

Reports about identity theft

Reports of activity in religious communities

AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

Reports about industrial activity

Reports about physical machines

Reports about criminal activity

AI-related competition achievement

A viral meme

An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

AI-related sex scandal

A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

Attack on Taiwan

AI-related terrorist attack

AI-related assassination

AI-designed pathogen

AI drug discovery

AI material discovery

Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

Reports of underwater activity

Reports of activity on blockchain networks

Reports of activity in academic communities

Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

Reports of activity in online video games

Reports about people getting scammed

AI-related cult

AI system demonstrates general robotic control

AI causes significant stock market event

Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

AI-related archaeology

Major AI safety incident or accident

AI system makes scientific breakthrough

AI system solves major unsolved math problem

An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

AI-related nuclear weapon use

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.35%chance

211414

OptionVotes

YES

1268

789

Will an AI datacenter in the US be sabotaged before 2029?

Sep 23, 8:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.69%chance

171119

OptionVotes

YES

1296

771

When will OpenAI achieve the capacity to produce 1 gigawatt of AI infrastructure weekly?

Sep 23, 3:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8582

OptionProbability

Before 2051

Before 2042

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2028

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

Oct 29, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

34%chance

6565

OptionVotes

YES

1393

718

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

10557

OptionVotes

YES

1106

905

Will Alphabet Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 2.0

2.0 - 2.5

2.5 - 3.0

3.0 - 3.5

3.5-4.0

Above 4.0

AI Infrastructure News

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Prediction markets for AI Infrastructure

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

AI "devops" #2: Will there be an AI that can help manage cloud infrastructure by 2030?

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Will an AI datacenter in the US be sabotaged before 2029?

When will OpenAI achieve the capacity to produce 1 gigawatt of AI infrastructure weekly?

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Will Alphabet Emissions end at?

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