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Prediction markets for AI Insights

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 16, 5:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

98.87%chance

360114185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

30314

803

Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?

Jan 31, 12:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.13%chance

11354659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4779

831

Will ClankerView get 100 paying users in 2026?

May 1, 11:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.05%chance

2811246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13866

4297

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.22%chance

192163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

900

11

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.68%chance

4780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4261

3904

Will an AI be solely responsible for an AI breakthrough by the end of 2030?

Dec 16, 11:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

25779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

968

Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?

Dec 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

54.33%chance

21752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1155

804

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?

Apr 14, 7:22 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.53%chance

24587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

969

Will any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?

Aug 27, 3:51 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

78.66%chance

20584

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

954

Will we “muddle through” alignment?

Mar 18, 9:42 AMJan 26, 7:59 AM

66%chance

10138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

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