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Prediction markets for AI Insights

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 16, 5:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

98.95%chance

360111942

OptionVotes

NO

YES

32057

784

Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?

Jan 31, 12:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.06%chance

10047822

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4172

1076

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.71%chance

2412029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3374

219

Will ClankerView get 100 paying users in 2026?

May 1, 11:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.28%chance

265322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7934

5255

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

11.84%chance

254017

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2618

247

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

Jan 23, 8:50 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

27.85%chance

363784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

978

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.22%chance

192163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

900

11

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.68%chance

4780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4261

3904

Will an AI be solely responsible for an AI breakthrough by the end of 2030?

Dec 16, 11:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

25779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

968

Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?

Dec 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

57.29%chance

20702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

867

Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?

Apr 14, 7:22 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.53%chance

24587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

969

Will any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?

Aug 27, 3:51 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

78.66%chance

20584

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

954

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