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Prediction markets for AI Leadership

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

29.15%chance

6110099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5753

4784

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

80.53%chance

399304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2034

492

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

5.22%chance

227665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4263

235

Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?

Feb 1, 5:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

3.09%chance

124819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5494

16

Will the Democratic Nominee in 2028 say “genocide”?

Jun 28, 2:15 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

36.64%chance

131481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3856

2365

Will Substack implement an automatic AI-generated-content filter by EoY 2026?

Aug 2, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.07%chance

81347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

640

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Was there ever a memo of OpenAI leadership discussing selling to the Russian government to fund AI development?

Jun 4, 6:55 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.71%chance

6390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

592

299

Will OpenAI publicly state that they know how to safely align a superintelligence before 2030?

Nov 3, 11:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.38%chance

12254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

889

Which issues will Donald Trump propose or imply can be solved with tariffs?

Jan 25, 11:29 PMFeb 2, 10:59 PM

8251

OptionProbability

Immigration

Unemployment

High taxes

Budget deficit

US leadership in AI

Livings costs

Crime

Inflation

Housing costs

Healthcare

Gaza conflict

Ukraine conflict

100

93

90

90

82

80

78

67

31

28

25

24

Will I get ED CMU SCS 2026

Dec 17, 12:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

6201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Will any other large AI organization have a big public leadership conflict before 2028?

Nov 22, 8:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

68.42%chance

568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

73

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