OptionVotes
NO
YES
2576
389
2618
247
OptionProbability
Intermediate scenario
No such statement before 2030
Optimistic scenario
Pessimistic scenario
65
21
11
4
No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.
No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)
Yes: transformers scale the best
No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)
48
41
6
