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Prediction markets for AI Mathematical Olympiad

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.06%chance

109171214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

81796

26531

When will an AI win the $5 million XTX AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize?

Nov 29, 5:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

488440

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2030 or later

2028

2029

2024

2025

33

26

19

12

8

1

1

How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score?

Jan 2, 7:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

445107

OptionProbability

1

2

3-4

>8

0

5-8

73

18

6

2

1

1

What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Jan 18, 1:09 AMJan 2, 12:35 AM

264773

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2029

2028

2024

100

96

96

96

95

0

Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)

Jun 26, 6:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

93795

OptionProbability

< 2 years

< 1 year

< 4 years

< 10 years

< 1 month

< 25 years

< 4 months

>= 25 years

< 1 week

31

29

15

12

4

4

3

2

1

Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?

Nov 27, 6:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

85.11%chance

9884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

364

103

What IMO Shortlist topic (ACN) will be the second easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?

Jan 17, 11:18 PMDec 30, 10:59 PM

8128

OptionProbability

Algebra

Number Theory

Combinatorics

48

39

14

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