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Prediction markets for AI Mathematical Olympiad

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.41%chance

198384813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155442

22908

What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Jan 18, 1:09 AMJan 2, 12:35 AM

298844

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2029

2028

2024

100

100

96

96

95

0

Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)

Jun 26, 6:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

94215

OptionProbability

>= 25 years

< 25 years

< 4 years

< 10 years

< 1 year

< 2 years

< 1 month

< 4 months

< 1 week

42

14

12

10

8

8

3

2

1

Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?

Nov 27, 6:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3%chance

122923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

757

15

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.4%chance

4927

OptionVotes

NO

YES

301

48

will ayan nayak jmo qual in the big 27

Jun 27, 4:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.39%chance

10265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

Will MAA release cutoff scores for USA(J)MO ever again?

Jul 6, 2:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38%chance

9145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

What IMO Shortlist topic (ACN) will be the second easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?

Jan 17, 11:18 PMDec 30, 10:59 PM

8128

OptionProbability

Algebra

Number Theory

Combinatorics

48

39

14

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