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Top stories

Google Expands AI Mode to 180 Countries in English With Agentic Restaurant Finder, Booking Features, and Gemini 2.5 Pro Access

Google Expands AI Mode to 180 Countries in English With Agentic Restaurant Finder, Booking Features, and Gemini 2.5 Pro Access

Authors

22

1 year ago

Prediction markets for AI Mode

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

69104

9470

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18571238

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

Other

Google

Meta

DeepSeek

Alibaba

52

41

2

2

1

1

1

1

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.63%chance

2733820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24158

4139

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will a Human or AI model solve the Riemann hypothesis by 2028?

Dec 23, 1:18 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

383317

OptionProbability

No proof

AI Model

Human-AI Collaboration

Pure Human Effort

60

36

4

0

Will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?

Sep 30, 1:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.25%chance

432253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1813

365

Will a generative AI model be able to make a movie from a novel before the end of 2027?

Apr 18, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59%chance

291958

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1378

522

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

51.46%chance

12934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

975

AI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2030?

Dec 23, 4:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57.65%chance

13877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

584

AI beats Portal 2 Cooperative mode with a human (or itself) by what date?

Jul 19, 6:17 PMDec 31, 6:10 PM

8823

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2026

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035 or later/never

2025

33

27

13

8

3

3

3

3

3

2

1

Will Australia loosen copyright laws to allow AI model training by EOY 2027?

Sep 17, 2:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

2442

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible?

Aug 22, 8:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9102

OptionProbability

Human misuse of AI

Antagonistic AI

Indifferent (to humans) AI

Pro-human AI catastrophic mistake

32

30

28

10

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