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Top stories

Google Expands AI Mode to 180 Countries in English With Agentic Restaurant Finder, Booking Features, and Gemini 2.5 Pro Access

Google Expands AI Mode to 180 Countries in English With Agentic Restaurant Finder, Booking Features, and Gemini 2.5 Pro Access

Authors

22

9 months ago

Prediction markets for AI Mode

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

831515860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58238

10505

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

57.35%chance

265151314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11662

6844

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

7429741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11639

8508

[ACX 2026] Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.15%chance

7720977

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9071

3542

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2914664

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

Anthropic

xAI

DeepSeek

Meta

Alibaba

Other

34

30

22

5

3

2

2

2

Will World Model AIs start being used in games in early 2026 and quickly start dominating the Game Development industry?

Aug 5, 8:43 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

249219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3645

274

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will a generative AI model be able to make a movie from a novel before the end of 2027?

Apr 18, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.23%chance

261885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

533

Will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?

Sep 30, 1:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.32%chance

351702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

608

Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?

Mar 30, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.86%chance

201545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1086

706

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

51.46%chance

12934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

975

AI beats Portal 2 Cooperative mode with a human (or itself) by what date?

Jul 19, 6:17 PMDec 31, 6:10 PM

8823

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2026

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035 or later/never

2025

33

27

13

8

3

3

3

3

3

2

1

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