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Top stories

Google Expands AI Mode to 180 Countries in English With Agentic Restaurant Finder, Booking Features, and Gemini 2.5 Pro Access

Google Expands AI Mode to 180 Countries in English With Agentic Restaurant Finder, Booking Features, and Gemini 2.5 Pro Access

Authors

22

7 months ago

Prediction markets for AI Mode

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.06%chance

826508702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57414

10596

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

63.05%chance

216122009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10846

8080

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

41.28%chance

6226753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12280

8032

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Mar 17, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.59%chance

7217103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

897

[ACX 2026] Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.99%chance

6814585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8681

3642

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2714364

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Other

Meta

33

31

20

5

3

3

3

2

Will World Model AIs start being used in games in early 2026 and quickly start dominating the Game Development industry?

Aug 5, 8:43 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

249219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3645

274

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will a generative AI model be able to make a movie from a novel before the end of 2027?

Apr 18, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.23%chance

261885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

533

Will there be a new AI Startup primarily focused on using AI models for computer control before the end of March?

Mar 4, 2:01 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

43.73%chance

141119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1196

659

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

51.46%chance

12934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

975

AI beats Portal 2 Cooperative mode with a human (or itself) by what date?

Jul 19, 6:17 PMDec 31, 6:10 PM

7771

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2026

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035 or later/never

2025

37

25

12

9

3

3

3

3

3

2

1

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