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Top stories

Google Expands AI Mode to 180 Countries in English With Agentic Restaurant Finder, Booking Features, and Gemini 2.5 Pro Access

Google Expands AI Mode to 180 Countries in English With Agentic Restaurant Finder, Booking Features, and Gemini 2.5 Pro Access

Authors

22

4 months ago

Prediction markets for AI Mode

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

12.63%chance

802467730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

48915

11661

Will an AI model write the proof to the Riemann Hypothesis by the end of 2025?

Sep 14, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1%chance

178193532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115702

1609

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?

Dec 29, 5:17 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

78.3%chance

167101556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18397

5828

Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?

Dec 14, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

3.24%chance

4494386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54636

1830

Which company has best AI model end of 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Aug 8, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9485998

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Anthropic

DeepSeek

Meta

Alibaba

Moonshot AI

Other

80

13

4

1

1

0

0

0

0

Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?

Jan 17, 9:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

9042786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.85%chance

6617807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10162

9359

Will World Model AIs start being used in games in early 2026 and quickly start dominating the Game Development industry?

Aug 5, 8:43 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

228377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3645

274

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?

Nov 16, 6:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.91%chance

776855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2516

492

AI beats Portal 2 Cooperative mode with a human (or itself) by what date?

Jul 19, 6:17 PMDec 31, 6:10 PM

7771

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2026

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035 or later/never

2025

37

25

12

9

3

3

3

3

3

2

1

Will "Near-mode thinking on AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 8, 1:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12%chance

1166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

976

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