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Top stories

Google Rolls Out AI Mode with Gemini 2.5 Pro, Deep Search, and AI Calling to All Users in India and UK

Google Rolls Out AI Mode with Gemini 2.5 Pro, Deep Search, and AI Calling to All Users in India and UK

Authors

40

25 days ago

Google Unveils ‘Web Guide’ AI Experiment to Cluster Search Results

Google Unveils ‘Web Guide’ AI Experiment to Cluster Search Results

Authors

6

9 days ago

Prediction markets for AI Mode

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25141

17457

Will an AI model write the proof to the Riemann Hypothesis by the end of 2025?

Sep 14, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2%chance

171138197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

76985

2163

Which company has best AI model end of August? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Jul 1, 5:31 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

71122356

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

xAI

Anthropic

Alibaba

Meta

DeepSeek

Other

57

40

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?

Dec 14, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

15.31%chance

2629485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23517

4252

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Mar 17, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

6916510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

6015052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9919

9893

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?

Dec 29, 5:17 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

33.86%chance

508848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14496

6492

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

An AI model with 100 trillion parameters exists by the end of 2025?

Dec 18, 4:43 PMDec 25, 8:00 AM

21.56%chance

745693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

946

Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?

Nov 16, 6:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.35%chance

734992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

968

AI beats Portal 2 Cooperative mode with a human (or itself) by what date?

Jul 19, 6:17 PMDec 31, 6:10 PM

7771

Will "Near-mode thinking on AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 8, 1:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12%chance

1166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

976

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