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Prediction markets for AI Payments

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3717854

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

51

49

41

36

24

0

Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?

Feb 19, 6:04 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

3.73%chance

5410450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5083

197

When will OpenAI accept Worldcoin?

Sep 29, 3:50 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

153037

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

48

23

0

0

Will a single parent in Brazil earn at least one minimum wage from Bolsa Família by 2029?

Sep 25, 11:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.23%chance

62299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4086

101

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM

14.9%chance

232276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2390

418

AI system achieves full technological and economic autonomy before 2028?

Sep 20, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.52%chance

61498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1440

694

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32930

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

Will OpenAI pay compensation to people who their AIs "defame"?

Apr 7, 5:16 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

28.4%chance

12226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

951

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

Feb 4, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.46%chance

4215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

932

Twitter + Ai Image Generation + Bitmoji integration by end 2027

Nov 1, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.25%chance

17

OptionVotes

YES

NO

55

45

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