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Prediction markets for AI PC

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1418767

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

25

20

19

16

16

4

1

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2075?

May 24, 2:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.47%chance

4118099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1680

419

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2050?

May 24, 2:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.85%chance

277786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

275

Old PCs become more valuable due to AI before 2035?

Dec 8, 12:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.74%chance

8273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Will AI lead to a dystopia future by 2100 (totalitarianism, disempowerment)?

May 19, 3:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.93%chance

12247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

964

Will someone use brainwaves alone to play Age of Empires II (on PC or XBox) well enough to beat Moderate AI by EOY 2028?

Feb 3, 9:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.13%chance

6158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

80

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

48.5%chance

866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

135

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