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Prediction markets for AI PC

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1518931

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

25

20

18

16

16

4

1

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2075?

May 24, 2:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.47%chance

4118099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1680

419

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2050?

May 24, 2:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.85%chance

277786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

275

will gta 6 come out before the end of 2026

Apr 18, 9:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.64%chance

222469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

536

19

Will small open weight models self replicate as a virus on smart TVs and similar devices before July of 2027?

Oct 12, 10:33 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

38.74%chance

302150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

795

Old PCs become more valuable due to AI before 2035?

Dec 8, 12:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

11327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

Will AI lead to a dystopia future by 2100 (totalitarianism, disempowerment)?

May 19, 3:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.93%chance

12247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

964

Will someone use brainwaves alone to play Age of Empires II (on PC or XBox) well enough to beat Moderate AI by EOY 2028?

Feb 3, 9:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.13%chance

6158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

80

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

119

GTA Vii Before 2055?

Sep 22, 10:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.61%chance

457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

65

When will be possible play GTA VI online?

Sep 13, 9:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

348

OptionProbability

Nov-Dec 2026

Jan-Jun 2027

Jul-Dec 2027

Jan-Jun 2028

Jul-Dec 2028

2029 or after

31

30

20

7

7

6

Will GTA6 have a free weekend/"free for limited time" right before (within 1.5 months b4) the 2028 presidential election

Jun 26, 7:02 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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