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Prediction markets for AI Pin

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.88%chance

11430322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2576

389

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9318942

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2035+

2029

2030

2026

2031

2032

2033

2034

2025

34

17

11

9

8

7

6

4

3

2

0

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.01%chance

285333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1356

824

Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?

May 25, 8:34 PMDec 31, 9:32 PM

46.07%chance

364674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

924

Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?

Sep 20, 11:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.94%chance

193044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11767

8498

Will SpaceX execute a ship catch attempt during Starship flight 14 ?

Jul 28, 12:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

131079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

When will MKBHD review a product worse than Humane AI pin?

May 1, 8:45 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6160

OptionProbability

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

73

68

66

0

0

Will smartphones become extinct before 2100?

Sep 15, 1:23 PMDec 31, 7:30 AM

33%chance

118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

26

Would allowing users to "pin" chats in the Message tab help users manage P2P loans among other arrangements?

Apr 23, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

90

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