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Prediction markets for AI Pioneers

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.29%chance

859583594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

88522

8160

When will I be able to purchase a self-driving Toyota (or Lexus) in the USA?

Jun 2, 2:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4142

OptionProbability

2031-2032

2033-2034

2029-2030

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

2027-2028

Other

16

16

13

13

13

11

10

10

Will Deviantart exist in 2050?

Sep 24, 5:38 AMDec 31, 7:30 AM

54.45%chance

254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

87

Will University of North Carolina researcher Bryan Roth win the Nobel Prize for his DREADDs research?

Aug 24, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Transparency into any useful internal pattern in LLM by EOY 20XY whose semantics was unfamiliar to AI & cog sci in 20NN?

Oct 23, 1:34 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

422

OptionProbability

By 2036... In 2006

By 2030... In 2006

By 2028... in 2008

By 2028... in 2006

72

59

50

50

Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?

Jun 18, 3:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.36%chance

112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Which AI pioneer is funniest?

Sep 19, 12:59 PM

60

Which of these AI pioneers has the best cogsec?

Sep 19, 7:00 PM

40

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