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Prediction markets for AI Pioneers

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

69114

9469

When will I be able to purchase a self-driving Toyota (or Lexus) in the USA?

Jun 2, 2:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4142

OptionProbability

2031-2032

2033-2034

2029-2030

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

2027-2028

Other

16

16

13

13

13

11

10

10

Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery?

Aug 27, 5:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Will Deviantart exist in 2050?

Sep 24, 5:38 AMDec 31, 7:30 AM

43.06%chance

232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

66

Will University of North Carolina researcher Bryan Roth win the Nobel Prize for his DREADDs research?

Aug 24, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?

Jun 18, 3:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.36%chance

112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Which AI pioneer is funniest?

Sep 19, 12:59 PM

60

Which of these AI pioneers has the best cogsec?

Sep 19, 7:00 PM

40

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