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Prediction markets for AI Pioneers

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.81%chance

834517320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58416

10485

When will I be able to purchase a self-driving Toyota (or Lexus) in the USA?

Jun 2, 2:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

282

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

Other

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?

Jun 18, 3:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.36%chance

112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Which AI pioneer is funniest?

Sep 19, 12:59 PM

60

Which of these AI pioneers has the best cogsec?

Sep 19, 7:00 PM

40

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