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Prediction markets for AI PLAN Act

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9319174

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2035+

2030

2031

2026

2032

2033

2034

2025

30

19

10

10

9

7

6

4

2

2

0

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

What does pizza refer to in Epstein files (in addition to actual pizza food)?

Feb 15, 6:22 AMDec 31, 6:19 AM

232658

OptionProbability

Nothing other than the actual pizza food

Interactions with (incl. sexual exploitation of) underage girls

Child exploitation materials

Other

Adrenochrome

39

34

15

8

4

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass (Prop 43)

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.37%chance

4531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

841

Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass?

Jun 3, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.7%chance

4426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

510

20

Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress?

Mar 13, 11:09 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

6.33%chance

5211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

788

Artemis 4 Launch Year

Feb 14, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

5129

OptionProbability

2029

2030

Not before 2035/Announced Cancelled

2031

2032

2033

2034

44

23

10

8

7

4

3

Which AI sub will i buy next?

Sep 23, 3:54 AMDec 31, 3:52 AM

3120

OptionProbability

ChatGPT Plus

Opencode Go

Other

Claude Pro

Google AI Pro

41

26

17

13

3

Will the UK raise the minimum income requirement for family visas above £40,000 before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

TSA abolished by EOY 2030?

Mar 27, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.99%chance

331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

97

Detection of cosmological primordial tensor-to-scalar ratio r>0.003 by EOY 2030?

Aug 18, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.99%chance

111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

97

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