AI Platform News

Polymarket legally accessible to US citizens before December 31, 2025

Nov 22, 4:05 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

95.43%chance

237238329

OptionVotes

YES

47466

2577

Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:51 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

4.39%chance

5569376

OptionVotes

YES

46541

2113

Will Google Deepmind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:58 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

4.31%chance

3337754

OptionVotes

YES

46223

1947

Will AI generated content be ~50% or more of content creation on major social media platforms in 2025?

Jun 29, 5:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

15.4%chance

293644

OptionVotes

YES

1819

728

North-/South Korea, what happens till 2030?

Feb 8, 11:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

292713

OptionProbability

A south Korean citizen is killed by a "waste" balloon

North Korea launches rockets

South Korea and US military do military exercises as deterrence

South Korea reinstalls propaganda speakers at DMZ

Elections in North Korea

A foreigner gets arrested in North Korea

The COVID-19 border lockdown is lifted

North Korean munitions depot explodes by accident or by "accident".

North Korea announces domestic AI platform

Kim Jong un dies

Kim Jong Un seeks medical care abroad

Another defector crosses at JSA

Kim Jong Un is replaced

China bombs either one of the Koreas (mainland or claimed islands)

Invasion of one of the countries

In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?

May 25, 4:22 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

16.71%chance

92023

OptionVotes

YES

2233

448

When will the first major U.S. presidential candidate make AI safety part of their platform?

Mar 14, 9:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.18%chance

131134

OptionProbability

YES

2031

812

By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?

Jul 14, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

11%chance

10748

OptionVotes

YES

1188

946

Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

Sep 6, 5:04 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

14.65%chance

11390

OptionVotes

YES

1181

943

Will AI-generated media on major social media platforms be required to be labeled as such by the US government by 2026?

Jul 16, 3:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.61%chance

10367

OptionVotes

YES

348

Will any politician be elected on a Luddite platform to protect jobs from AI automation?

Apr 9, 9:44 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

77.92%chance

899

OptionVotes

YES

185

103

Will any politician be elected on an AI gain-of-function moratorium platform?

Apr 9, 9:50 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

38%chance

438

OptionVotes

YES

101

AI Platform News

Prediction markets for AI Platform

Prediction markets for AI Platform

Prediction markets for AI Platform

Polymarket legally accessible to US citizens before December 31, 2025

Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Will Google Deepmind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Will AI generated content be ~50% or more of content creation on major social media platforms in 2025?

North-/South Korea, what happens till 2030?

In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?

When will the first major U.S. presidential candidate make AI safety part of their platform?

By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?

Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

Will AI-generated media on major social media platforms be required to be labeled as such by the US government by 2026?

Will any politician be elected on a Luddite platform to protect jobs from AI automation?

Will any politician be elected on an AI gain-of-function moratorium platform?

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