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Prediction markets for AI Platform

Will Stripe acquire Openrouter in 2026?

Jul 25, 4:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.58%chance

513077

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6420

5689

By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?

Jul 14, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

3.39%chance

162844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3529

799

North-/South Korea, what happens till 2030?

Feb 8, 11:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

302723

OptionProbability

A south Korean citizen is killed by a "waste" balloon

North Korea launches rockets

South Korea and US military do military exercises as deterrence

South Korea reinstalls propaganda speakers at DMZ

Elections in North Korea

A foreigner gets arrested in North Korea

The COVID-19 border lockdown is lifted

North Korean munitions depot explodes by accident or by "accident".

North Korea announces domestic AI platform

Kim Jong un dies

Kim Jong Un seeks medical care abroad

Another defector crosses at JSA

Kim Jong Un is replaced

Invasion of one of the countries

China bombs either one of the Koreas (mainland or claimed islands)

96

94

93

86

85

76

67

60

46

34

34

34

32

19

17

In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?

May 25, 4:22 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

21.79%chance

102103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1895

528

When will the first major U.S. presidential candidate make AI safety part of their platform?

Mar 14, 9:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.16%chance

131460

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1721

855

Will AI-generated content be banned or clearly labeled by at least one major social platform (Meta, X, TikTok,YouTube)?

Jan 1, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.7%chance

10464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

28

Mr. Beat's 2026 Bingo Card

Jan 21, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13393

OptionProbability

Cyber terrorism incident

AI slop completely takes over platforms

More assassinations

Obesity rates dramatically decline

Blue wave midterms

Measles cases triple

Chain movie theaters close across the country

More governments embrace Bitcoin

Really bad hurricane season

AI bubble pops (but it's not that bad)

Americans become more united

Trump has (another?) stroke

A major merger of streaming services

Solar power doubles

Emo makes a comeback

YouTube surpasses Netflix in paid subscribers

Stagflation

Gen Alpha rebels against digital media

EV sales skyrocket

A new nonpartisan political movement starts

Twitter shuts down

Robot restaurant trend

War with Venezuela

Everyone becomes a hipster

72

66

66

66

64

55

50

50

45

41

41

37

34

34

34

34

26

24

24

24

24

24

17

17

Will a major social media platform allow users to hide AI-generated content in 2026?

Jan 8, 9:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.8%chance

7230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will any politician be elected on a Luddite platform to protect jobs from AI automation?

Apr 9, 9:44 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

77.92%chance

899

OptionVotes

NO

YES

185

103

Will an AI agent mass-produce mass-consumed creative fiction (>1000 readers) on a public platform by end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.04%chance

597

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

13

When will an AI system autonomously build and operate a production software platform serving 1,000+ active users?

Feb 28, 1:44 AMFeb 28, 1:43 AM

381

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2032

Before Dec 2031

Before Dec 2028

Before Dec 2029

Before Dec 2030

Before Jan 2028

Before Oct 2027

Before Apr 2027

Before Dec 2026

48

47

46

46

46

44

41

37

33

Will any politician be elected on an AI gain-of-function moratorium platform?

Apr 9, 9:50 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

38%chance

438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

81

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