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Prediction markets for AI Platform

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

8.51%chance

7431502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32786

3050

North-/South Korea, what happens till 2030?

Feb 8, 11:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

292713

OptionProbability

A south Korean citizen is killed by a "waste" balloon

North Korea launches rockets

South Korea and US military do military exercises as deterrence

South Korea reinstalls propaganda speakers at DMZ

Elections in North Korea

A foreigner gets arrested in North Korea

The COVID-19 border lockdown is lifted

North Korean munitions depot explodes by accident or by "accident".

North Korea announces domestic AI platform

Kim Jong un dies

Kim Jong Un seeks medical care abroad

Another defector crosses at JSA

Kim Jong Un is replaced

China bombs either one of the Koreas (mainland or claimed islands)

Invasion of one of the countries

99

94

93

88

85

76

67

50

46

34

34

34

30

17

14

In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?

May 25, 4:22 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

21.79%chance

102103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1895

528

When will the first major U.S. presidential candidate make AI safety part of their platform?

Mar 14, 9:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.59%chance

131211

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1970

826

By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?

Jul 14, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

11.8%chance

12778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

956

Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

Sep 6, 5:04 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

14.65%chance

12410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

943

Mr. Beat's 2026 Bingo Card

Jan 21, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11380

OptionProbability

Measles cases triple

Cyber terrorism incident

Blue wave midterms

AI slop completely takes over platforms

More assassinations

Obesity rates dramatically decline

Chain movie theaters close across the country

More governments embrace Bitcoin

Really bad hurricane season

AI bubble pops (but it's not that bad)

Americans become more united

Trump has (another?) stroke

A major merger of streaming services

Solar power doubles

Emo makes a comeback

YouTube surpasses Netflix in paid subscribers

Stagflation

Gen Alpha rebels against digital media

EV sales skyrocket

Twitter shuts down

Robot restaurant trend

A new nonpartisan political movement starts

War with Venezuela

Everyone becomes a hipster

80

72

66

66

66

66

50

50

45

41

41

37

34

34

34

34

24

24

24

24

24

21

17

17

Will AI-generated media on major social media platforms be required to be labeled as such by the US government by 2026?

Jul 16, 3:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.61%chance

10367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

29

Will a major social media platform allow users to hide AI-generated content in 2026?

Jan 8, 9:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.8%chance

7230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will AI-generated content be banned or clearly labeled by at least one major social platform (Meta, X, TikTok,YouTube)?

Jan 1, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.69%chance

5108

OptionVotes

NO

YES

198

50

Will any politician be elected on a Luddite platform to protect jobs from AI automation?

Apr 9, 9:44 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

77.92%chance

899

OptionVotes

NO

YES

185

103

Will any politician be elected on an AI gain-of-function moratorium platform?

Apr 9, 9:50 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

38%chance

438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

81

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