AI Plus News

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.39%chance

86134411

OptionVotes

YES

108928

17670

Canada officially joins the United States before Trump's admin leaves power.

Dec 9, 2:11 PMJan 21, 5:59 AM

1.49%chance

6736742

OptionVotes

YES

8124

123

Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?

Jan 31, 12:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.07%chance

7734328

OptionVotes

YES

2773

2492

Will a radio station play any AI music I create in 2025?

Jan 10, 6:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.81%chance

5623332

OptionVotes

YES

1840

544

Will any AI music I release achieve a Manifold rating >= 5 in 2025?

Jan 1, 9:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.41%chance

2220678

OptionVotes

YES

1580

633

Will any AI music I release achieve 10,000 listens on Soundcloud in 2025?

Jan 9, 12:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41%chance

6716419

OptionVotes

YES

1200

834

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

98274

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

Highest Epoch-acknowledged FrontierMath score at EOY2026?

Apr 12, 6:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

117825

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

413738

OptionVotes

YES

1029

629

What AI safety incidents will occur in 2025?

Jan 10, 10:21 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

382227

OptionProbability

Deadly autonomous vehicle accident with driver present

Cybersecurity incident caused by AI written code

Any incident involving prompt injection in production

Another deadly crime planned with the use of LLMs (after Trump hotel explosion)

Any incident that results in internal investigation, caused by the use of AI by law enforcement

Cybersecurity incident caused by AI inference in production

[Duplicate]

Serious incident involving persuasion or blackmail by AI system

Deadly incident involving autonomous manufacturing equipment

Serious incident that can be directly attributed to misaligned agent behavior

Cybersecurity incident that can be directly attributed to misaligned agent behavior

Deadly incident involving autonomous military equipment

Deadly incident caused by AI medical system or equipment

Deadly autonomous vehicle accident with no driver present

100

Will I Pass the JLPT N1 by December 2025?

Oct 22, 11:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.61%chance

5225

OptionVotes

YES

171

When will OpenAI’s Operator be available to Plus users?

Feb 1, 3:33 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6179

OptionProbability

May 2025

Other

April 2025

March 2025

June 2025

July 2025

August 2025

September 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

AI Plus News

Prediction markets for AI Plus

Prediction markets for AI Plus

Prediction markets for AI Plus

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Canada officially joins the United States before Trump's admin leaves power.

Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?

Will a radio station play any AI music I create in 2025?

Will any AI music I release achieve a Manifold rating >= 5 in 2025?

Will any AI music I release achieve 10,000 listens on Soundcloud in 2025?

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Highest Epoch-acknowledged FrontierMath score at EOY2026?

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

What AI safety incidents will occur in 2025?

Will I Pass the JLPT N1 by December 2025?

When will OpenAI’s Operator be available to Plus users?

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