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Prediction markets for AI Reader

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.57%chance

16940406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1882

1004

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

Will there be a sane right wing frontier model by 2028?

Jul 9, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40%chance

6336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Do you think AI will help to reduce breast cancer by the end of 2030?

Oct 22, 9:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85%chance

7218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

240

90

Will an AI be able to impersonate players in Super Smash Bros. Melee before 2030?

Mar 27, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.99%chance

10177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

192

Which book(s) will win Will Kiely's $1,000 bounty by being the new best overview of AI existential risk?

Oct 2, 8:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4125

OptionProbability

"Obsolete: Power, Profit, and the Race to Build Machine Superintelligence" by Garrison Lovely

"Superintelligence" by Nick Bostrom

"Human Compatible" by Stuart Russell

"The Alignment Problem" by Brian Christian

"The Precipice" by Tob Ord

"What We Owe the Future" by Will MacAskill

"If Anyone Builds it, Everyone Dies" by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares

43

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will an AI agent mass-produce mass-consumed creative fiction (>1000 readers) on a public platform by end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

22

AI generates better alt text for 90% of test images by June 30, 2026?

Mar 30, 9:39 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

65.41%chance

881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

73

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

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