AI Reader News

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

16740007

OptionVotes

YES

1703

1135

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

27819

3071

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

998

932

Will there be a sane right wing frontier model by 2028?

Jul 9, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40%chance

6336

OptionVotes

YES

122

Do you think AI will help to reduce breast cancer by the end of 2030?

Oct 22, 9:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85%chance

7218

OptionVotes

YES

240

Will an AI be able to impersonate players in Super Smash Bros. Melee before 2030?

Mar 27, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.99%chance

10177

OptionVotes

YES

257

192

Which book(s) will win Will Kiely's $1,000 bounty by being the new best overview of AI existential risk?

Oct 2, 8:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4125

OptionProbability

"Obsolete: Power, Profit, and the Race to Build Machine Superintelligence" by Garrison Lovely

"Superintelligence" by Nick Bostrom

"Human Compatible" by Stuart Russell

"The Alignment Problem" by Brian Christian

"The Precipice" by Tob Ord

"What We Owe the Future" by Will MacAskill

"If Anyone Builds it, Everyone Dies" by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares

AI generates better alt text for 90% of test images by June 30, 2026?

Mar 30, 9:39 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

65.41%chance

881

OptionVotes

YES

138

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

AI Reader News

Prediction markets for AI Reader

Prediction markets for AI Reader

Prediction markets for AI Reader

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Will there be a sane right wing frontier model by 2028?

Do you think AI will help to reduce breast cancer by the end of 2030?

Will an AI be able to impersonate players in Super Smash Bros. Melee before 2030?

Which book(s) will win Will Kiely's $1,000 bounty by being the new best overview of AI existential risk?

AI generates better alt text for 90% of test images by June 30, 2026?

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

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