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Prediction markets for AI Red Teaming

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.86%chance

398597

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5104

5085

Which team will win World Constructor Championship in 2026 F1 season

Feb 2, 10:16 PMDec 13, 11:59 PM

175781

OptionProbability

Mercedes

Ferrari

Mclaren

Redbull racing

Aston Martin

Audi

Cadillac

Williams

Racing bulls

Haas

Alpine

81

13

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035

Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

10950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

801

Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August

May 6, 3:24 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

8.58%chance

9246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

326

31

Will Max Verstappen stop to Red Bull F1 end of this year 2026

Mar 30, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

How many years until a game like Red Dead Redemption 2 could be developed by a handful (5-20) of people within 2 years.

Jan 6, 3:11 PM

190

What news headline would destroy your net worth the most?

Oct 16, 5:55 AM

00

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