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Prediction markets for AI Red Teaming

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.57%chance

5212004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8319

3970

Which team will win World Constructor Championship in 2026 F1 season

Feb 2, 10:16 PMDec 13, 11:59 PM

237306

OptionProbability

Mercedes

Redbull racing

Ferrari

Mclaren

Aston Martin

Audi

Cadillac

Williams

Racing bulls

Haas

Alpine

99

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035

Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

10950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

801

Will Max Verstappen stop to Red Bull F1 end of this year 2026

Mar 30, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.67%chance

7833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

768

13

Does Pangram make egregious errors?

Nov 9, 6:12 AMDec 9, 6:08 AM

55.86%chance

4127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

889

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

67

What news headline would destroy your net worth the most?

Oct 16, 5:55 AM

00

How many years until a game like Red Dead Redemption 2 could be developed by a handful (5-20) of people within 2 years.

Jan 6, 3:11 PM

190

Do you support balogun playing?

Jul 6, 5:33 PM

150

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