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Prediction markets for AI Reputation

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14534927

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2029

2030

2028

2031

2032

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

33

11

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41%chance

19028884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

834

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.93%chance

809897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1385

586

Will an AI bubble pop cause the next depression?

Nov 19, 12:05 AMJan 1, 11:56 PM

44%chance

334198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.12%chance

113641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11967

8356

Will a sex scandal negatively affect the reputation of AI xrisk in the next five years?

Jun 18, 9:55 PMJun 19, 4:59 AM

71.02%chance

562877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

834

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

946

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?

Jun 25, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

132448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1979

1145

Will there be more software developers employed in the United States in June 2026 than June 2025?

Jul 2, 8:15 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

56.79%chance

182100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1164

886

AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Jul 4, 3:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.85%chance

271422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

75

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32930

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

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