AI Reputation News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19745815

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

YES

987

956

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14735087

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2030

2031

2029

2028

2032

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

52.56%chance

8910858

OptionVotes

YES

1033

863

Will an AI bubble pop cause the next depression?

Nov 19, 12:05 AMJan 1, 11:56 PM

43%chance

375007

OptionVotes

YES

1151

869

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.1%chance

184504

OptionVotes

YES

12481

8012

Will a sex scandal negatively affect the reputation of AI xrisk in the next five years?

Jun 18, 9:55 PMJun 19, 4:59 AM

71.02%chance

562877

OptionVotes

YES

1267

834

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

1175

946

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?

Jun 25, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

132448

OptionVotes

YES

1979

1145

AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Jul 4, 3:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.49%chance

361949

OptionVotes

YES

107

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

321030

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

Number of H100 equivalent chips (by Flops) Huawei will make in year 2026

May 2, 4:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 100,000

100,000 - 499,999

500,000 - 999,999

1,000,000 - 2,499,999

2,500,000 - 4,999,999

5,000,000 - 9,999,999

10,000,000+

AI Reputation News

Prediction markets for AI Reputation

Prediction markets for AI Reputation

Prediction markets for AI Reputation

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Will an AI bubble pop cause the next depression?

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Will a sex scandal negatively affect the reputation of AI xrisk in the next five years?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?

AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Number of H100 equivalent chips (by Flops) Huawei will make in year 2026

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