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Prediction markets for AI Research Challenge

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.26%chance

293135508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4893

31

In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Sep 30, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7015103

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2049

2050-2074

Other

2075-2099

60

29

6

4

1

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.7%chance

10814221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3839

2789

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4.17%chance

144554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4791

209

Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?

May 12, 3:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74%chance

304291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

59

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2040?

Oct 1, 4:04 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80%chance

503508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

345

50

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

Aging cured by 2040 if AGI by 2030?

May 7, 9:30 PMDec 30, 9:09 PM

29%chance

251554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

New Bach work discovered before 2030

Mar 3, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.83%chance

6224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

301

216

Will Until Labs preserve Ben Sasse?

Apr 10, 9:50 PMApr 10, 9:50 PM

17.51%chance

6169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

46

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Aug 1, 4:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.33%chance

3106

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

93

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