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Prediction markets for AI Research Challenge

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32%chance

22099359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4809

127

By when will AI score >= 80% on FrontierMath

Nov 8, 9:58 PMNov 16, 7:59 AM

4712431

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2030

2035

2050

2024

40

29

17

6

2

2

2

2

0

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

10110673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3917

1923

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

387022

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

33

20

13

7

6

5

4

4

In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Sep 30, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

513749

OptionProbability

2030-2049

2025-2029

2050-2074

2075-2099

Other

55

20

19

5

1

Will Artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2050?

Oct 1, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84%chance

413487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

330

100

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?

May 12, 3:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.96%chance

162932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

25

9

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Jun 30, 9:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4240

OptionProbability

Yes

No

Other

54

23

23

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

When will Brave browser's Leo have agentic capacities?

Jan 21, 9:03 PMJan 21, 9:03 PM

2225

OptionProbability

After

Before Oct 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Apr 2026

64

24

17

10

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