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Prediction markets for AI Research Challenge

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35%chance

18984219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4814

111

Top SWE-Bench Verified score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2138085

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.21%chance

10010501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3855

1987

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

14.93%chance

283177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2387

419

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

69.7%chance

302778

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

920

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

49.59%chance

171736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Aging cured by 2040 if AGI by 2030?

May 7, 9:30 PMDec 30, 9:09 PM

18.71%chance

231420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

25

9

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?

May 12, 3:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.97%chance

13879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

How will the data shortage for LLM gets solved

Nov 25, 12:39 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24738

OptionProbability

Multimodal Data

Synthetic Data

88

55

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.7%chance

2400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

1820

Will AI predict the next magnitude 7+ earthquake to hit San Francisco before it happens?

Jun 21, 1:20 AMJan 2, 2:11 AM

10.45%chance

10380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

34

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