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Prediction markets for AI Research Challenge

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97%chance

377226100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5064

2

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.98%chance

13061823

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19704

1249

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1510936

OptionProbability

None

(0, 200]

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

61

23

8

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.77%chance

156407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3224

310

Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?

May 12, 3:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.39%chance

345964

OptionVotes

NO

YES

781

13

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Aug 1, 4:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.63%chance

111960

OptionVotes

NO

YES

439

37

Aging cured by 2040 if AGI by 2030?

May 7, 9:30 PMDec 30, 9:09 PM

29%chance

251554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Will I write for 2 hours a day for the next month?

Nov 6, 11:11 AMDec 6, 11:10 AM

48.03%chance

16995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

961

New Bach work discovered before 2030

Mar 3, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.83%chance

6224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

301

216

Will Until Labs preserve Ben Sasse?

Apr 10, 9:50 PMApr 10, 9:50 PM

17.51%chance

6169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

46

When will a study be conducted on the effects of DMT on cluster headaches, and if a study is done what will it find?

Oct 23, 11:41 AMJan 1, 12:36 PM

593

OptionProbability

Study that investigates short-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2040

Study conducted and released by 2035

Study that investigates long-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2030

85

75

65

58

34

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