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Prediction markets for AI Research Resource

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.98%chance

1923681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22111

4523

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

1335

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.03%chance

545201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1451

563

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

13.91%chance

283077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2488

402

7. Major progress will be made on building AI systems that can themselves autonomously build better AI systems.

Dec 27, 8:18 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

73.96%chance

203037

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1685

593

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

Jul 4, 3:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.79%chance

321826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1595

604

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

49.59%chance

171736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

Dec 31, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

10432

OptionProbability

181-365 days

731+ days

366-730 days

less than one day

1-7 days

8-31 days

32-90 days

91-180 days

Other

51

30

9

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.7%chance

2400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

1820

Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?

Apr 9, 9:06 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

73.83%chance

17361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

967

Will TAG Grading overtake PSA as the biggest collectible authenticator before the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.59%chance

262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

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