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Prediction markets for AI Revolution

When will Starship reach orbit?

Apr 2, 6:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

157263

OptionProbability

Jul-Dec 2026

2027

2028

Apr-Jun 2026

2029

2030

2031

2032+ or never

60

31

4

1

1

1

1

1

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

191671

OptionProbability

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with minimal concessions

Deal with major concessions

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Balkanization/long civil war

Venezuela-style puppet state

Voluntary transition of power

35

28

26

4

3

2

2

1

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

77.45%chance

5855

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1853

540

Where will the "AI revolution" first take place?

Nov 6, 9:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26815

OptionProbability

United States

China

Other

United Kingdom

Singapore

India

European Union

Switzerland

Canada

South Korea

Japan

Israel

Australia

Russia

38

21

10

7

6

5

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

Mar 29, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18759

OptionProbability

Oil blockade, regime stays

Oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime stays

90

8

1

1

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.32%chance

10603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

730

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

By 2030, which field will AI have the most revolutionary impact on?

Mar 8, 11:24 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

23328

OptionProbability

Robotics

Biotech

Finance

Energy

73

51

37

22

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

10154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

119

When will Pope Leo XIV pass away?

Feb 25, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

254

OptionProbability

10 - 20 years

20 - 30 years

5 - 10 years

Within 1 year

1 - 2 years

2 - 5 years

After 30 years

45

12

11

8

8

8

8

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