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Prediction markets for AI Safety Level

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.57%chance

5212004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8319

3970

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

May 25, 5:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.45%chance

589435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1433

856

Aging cured by 2040 if AGI by 2030?

May 7, 9:30 PMDec 30, 9:09 PM

29%chance

251554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

32.56%chance

21893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

803

Will the gold price drop below $3k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.09%chance

14608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

362

28

Will a federal moratorium on ~all state level AI regulation be in place at any point before 2030?

Sep 12, 8:55 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.93%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

By what year will any AI lab release a model under ASL-4 measures?

Jul 16, 9:13 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7515

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

71

68

64

57

51

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

Apr 10, 9:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.26%chance

6447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

507

20

If most of the economy becomes automated without us all dying, will Eliezer Yudkowsky admit that he was wrong?

May 15, 12:35 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.52%chance

26431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

73

If AI has an okay outcome and there was no special effort, was it because alignment was easy?

Apr 7, 5:28 PMApr 7, 5:27 PM

72.23%chance

5362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

62

Will any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2029?

Oct 21, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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