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Prediction markets for AI Safety Level

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

346931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6506

4501

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

May 25, 5:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.99%chance

475909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

800

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.65%chance

18812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

919

Will the gold price drop below $4k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

9712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Will a federal moratorium on ~all state level AI regulation be in place at any point before 2030?

Sep 12, 8:55 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.93%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

Will a Waymo self-driving car be involved in a fatal accident before July 1, 2026?

Apr 27, 9:11 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

12.59%chance

16452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

38

If most of the economy becomes automated without us all dying, will Eliezer Yudkowsky admit that he was wrong?

May 15, 12:35 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.79%chance

22396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

If AI has an okay outcome because of a huge alignment effort, where did AI progress stall out?

Mar 17, 3:52 AMMar 17, 3:51 AM

8290

OptionProbability

Superintelligent

Superhuman

Below- or par- human

67

20

14

Will a major AI company publish a “responsible scaling policy” for AI consciousness by 2030?

Feb 4, 11:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.85%chance

11205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

150

Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?

Apr 8, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.6%chance

5153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?

Mar 18, 3:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.89%chance

5132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

50

Hardware Intelligence Explosion by 2040?

Dec 7, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.88%chance

396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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