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Prediction markets for AI Safety Level

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.21%chance

388547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5184

5054

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

May 25, 5:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.99%chance

475909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

800

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.65%chance

18812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

919

Will the gold price drop below $4k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.91%chance

12799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

How many FLOPs will go into training the first ASL-3 model?

Oct 3, 2:08 AMOct 10, 3:59 AM

7693

OptionProbability

1e27

3e26

Other

3e25

1e25

1e26

1e24

3e24

34

25

15

9

8

6

2

2

Will a federal moratorium on ~all state level AI regulation be in place at any point before 2030?

Sep 12, 8:55 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.93%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

Will the gold price drop below $3k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.47%chance

12537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

32

Is Anthropic woke?

Feb 26, 1:34 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

83.78%chance

9462

OptionVotes

NO

YES

227

44

If AI has an okay outcome and there was no special effort, was it because alignment was easy?

Apr 7, 5:28 PMApr 7, 5:27 PM

72.23%chance

5362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

62

If AI has an okay outcome because of a huge alignment effort, where did AI progress stall out?

Mar 17, 3:52 AMMar 17, 3:51 AM

8290

OptionProbability

Superintelligent

Superhuman

Below- or par- human

67

20

14

Will a major AI company publish a “responsible scaling policy” for AI consciousness by 2030?

Feb 4, 11:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.85%chance

11205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

150

Hardware Intelligence Explosion by 2040?

Dec 7, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.88%chance

396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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