AI Safety Level News

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.1%chance

429434

OptionVotes

YES

5885

4737

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

May 25, 5:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.8%chance

488162

OptionVotes

YES

2558

698

To what extent will Developmental Cognitive Interpretability be successful [Read Updated Description]

May 29, 12:37 PMMay 29, 11:00 AM

181283

OptionProbability

8) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 1 year

2) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 1 year later

7) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 6 months

1) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 6 months later

3) I consider the work produced useful 6 months later

6) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 1 year

9) At least three papers from the agenda get published at top conferences or have companion LessWrong posts with >100 upvotes within 2 years

4) I consider the work produced useful 1 year later

5) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 6 months

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.65%chance

18812

OptionVotes

YES

1010

919

Will a federal moratorium on ~all state level AI regulation be in place at any point before 2030?

Sep 12, 8:55 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.93%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

1395

717

By what year will any AI lab release a model under ASL-4 measures?

Jul 16, 9:13 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7515

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

YES

1319

797

If AI has an okay outcome and there was no special effort, was it because alignment was easy?

Apr 7, 5:28 PMApr 7, 5:27 PM

72.23%chance

5362

OptionVotes

YES

161

If AI has an okay outcome because of a huge alignment effort, where did AI progress stall out?

Mar 17, 3:52 AMMar 17, 3:51 AM

8290

OptionProbability

Superintelligent

Superhuman

Below- or par- human

Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?

Mar 18, 3:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.16%chance

7200

OptionVotes

YES

269

Will there be a major new AI regulation bill signed in the U.S. before September 30, 2026?

Aug 4, 3:15 AMSep 29, 11:59 PM

11.68%chance

7178

OptionVotes

YES

275

Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?

Apr 8, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.05%chance

5158

OptionVotes

YES

238

AI Safety Level News

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Prediction markets for AI Safety Level

Prediction markets for AI Safety Level

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

To what extent will Developmental Cognitive Interpretability be successful [Read Updated Description]

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Will a federal moratorium on ~all state level AI regulation be in place at any point before 2030?

By what year will any AI lab release a model under ASL-4 measures?

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

If AI has an okay outcome and there was no special effort, was it because alignment was easy?

If AI has an okay outcome because of a huge alignment effort, where did AI progress stall out?

Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?

Will there be a major new AI regulation bill signed in the U.S. before September 30, 2026?

Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?

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