AI Safety Level News

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

11.68%chance

23460317

OptionVotes

YES

2365

657

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

May 25, 5:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.67%chance

435433

OptionVotes

YES

1126

933

Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-3 before the end of 2025?

Aug 22, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.85%chance

403340

OptionVotes

YES

212

Aging cured by 2040 if AGI by 2030?

May 7, 9:30 PMDec 30, 9:09 PM

18.71%chance

231420

OptionVotes

YES

208

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

27.15%chance

17792

OptionVotes

YES

990

970

How many FLOPs will go into training the first ASL-3 model?

Oct 3, 2:08 AMOct 10, 3:59 AM

6683

OptionProbability

1e27

3e26

Other

3e25

1e25

1e26

1e24

3e24

Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-4 or higher before the end of 2025?

Aug 23, 6:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.74%chance

16629

OptionVotes

YES

448

Will a federal moratorium on ~all state level AI regulation be in place at any point before 2030?

Sep 12, 8:55 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.93%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

1395

717

❓ If AGI turns out to be a disaster, what will be the main cause?

Aug 3, 5:44 AMAug 8, 3:34 PM

12496

OptionProbability

🧠⚠️ Misaligned goals — AGI misunderstands human values and acts against our interests.

🕵️‍♂️💣 Used by bad actors — hackers, authoritarian regimes, or terrorists weaponize AGI.

🎮❌ Loss of control — humans can't predict or stop AGI’s actions anymore.

🌳💥 Environmental harm — AGI decisions damage ecosystems or speed up climate change.

💼📉 Job loss & chaos — AGI wipes out jobs, leading to mass instability.

Other

🌐🤝 No global coordination — nations or companies rush ahead without cooperation.

👺🐒 Humans are evil — AGI can only align the universe by destroying us.

🤯🔀 Unintended consequences — AGI does something harmful without meaning to.

🛑🔧 Weak safety protocols — not enough safeguards or oversight before release.

🚀💡 Runaway self-improvement — AGI upgrades itself faster than humans can follow.

🧠📲 Misinformation at scale — AGI spreads lies, manipulates societies.

If most of the economy becomes automated without us all dying, will Eliezer Yudkowsky admit that he was wrong?

May 15, 12:35 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.79%chance

22396

OptionVotes

YES

109

By what year will any AI lab release a model under ASL-4 measures?

Jul 16, 9:13 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6305

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

Hardware Intelligence Explosion by 2040?

Dec 7, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

266

OptionVotes

YES

166

AI Safety Level News

Prediction markets for AI Safety Level

Prediction markets for AI Safety Level

Prediction markets for AI Safety Level

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-3 before the end of 2025?

Aging cured by 2040 if AGI by 2030?

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

How many FLOPs will go into training the first ASL-3 model?

Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-4 or higher before the end of 2025?

Will a federal moratorium on ~all state level AI regulation be in place at any point before 2030?

❓ If AGI turns out to be a disaster, what will be the main cause?

If most of the economy becomes automated without us all dying, will Eliezer Yudkowsky admit that he was wrong?

By what year will any AI lab release a model under ASL-4 measures?

Hardware Intelligence Explosion by 2040?

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