AI Safety Level News

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

May 25, 5:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.99%chance

475909

OptionVotes

YES

1739

800

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.77%chance

172765

OptionVotes

YES

7328

4236

Aging cured by 2040 if AGI by 2030?

May 7, 9:30 PMDec 30, 9:09 PM

29%chance

251554

OptionVotes

YES

156

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.65%chance

18812

OptionVotes

YES

1010

919

How many FLOPs will go into training the first ASL-3 model?

Oct 3, 2:08 AMOct 10, 3:59 AM

6683

OptionProbability

1e27

3e26

Other

3e25

1e25

1e26

1e24

3e24

Will a federal moratorium on ~all state level AI regulation be in place at any point before 2030?

Sep 12, 8:55 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.93%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

1395

717

❓ If AGI turns out to be a disaster, what will be the main cause?

Aug 3, 5:44 AMAug 8, 3:34 PM

12496

OptionProbability

🧠⚠️ Misaligned goals — AGI misunderstands human values and acts against our interests.

🕵️‍♂️💣 Used by bad actors — hackers, authoritarian regimes, or terrorists weaponize AGI.

🎮❌ Loss of control — humans can't predict or stop AGI’s actions anymore.

🌳💥 Environmental harm — AGI decisions damage ecosystems or speed up climate change.

💼📉 Job loss & chaos — AGI wipes out jobs, leading to mass instability.

Other

🌐🤝 No global coordination — nations or companies rush ahead without cooperation.

👺🐒 Humans are evil — AGI can only align the universe by destroying us.

🤯🔀 Unintended consequences — AGI does something harmful without meaning to.

🛑🔧 Weak safety protocols — not enough safeguards or oversight before release.

🚀💡 Runaway self-improvement — AGI upgrades itself faster than humans can follow.

🧠📲 Misinformation at scale — AGI spreads lies, manipulates societies.

If most of the economy becomes automated without us all dying, will Eliezer Yudkowsky admit that he was wrong?

May 15, 12:35 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.79%chance

22396

OptionVotes

YES

109

By what year will any AI lab release a model under ASL-4 measures?

Jul 16, 9:13 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6305

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

If AI has an okay outcome because of a huge alignment effort, where did AI progress stall out?

Mar 17, 3:52 AMMar 17, 3:51 AM

7261

OptionProbability

Superintelligent

Superhuman

Below- or par- human

Will a major AI company publish a “responsible scaling policy” for AI consciousness by 2030?

Feb 4, 11:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.85%chance

11205

OptionVotes

YES

180

150

Will FIFA cancel the soccer matches in Jalisco?

Feb 23, 5:54 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

39.87%chance

12177

OptionVotes

YES

123

AI Safety Level News

Prediction markets for AI Safety Level

Prediction markets for AI Safety Level

Prediction markets for AI Safety Level

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Aging cured by 2040 if AGI by 2030?

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

How many FLOPs will go into training the first ASL-3 model?

Will a federal moratorium on ~all state level AI regulation be in place at any point before 2030?

❓ If AGI turns out to be a disaster, what will be the main cause?

If most of the economy becomes automated without us all dying, will Eliezer Yudkowsky admit that he was wrong?

By what year will any AI lab release a model under ASL-4 measures?

If AI has an okay outcome because of a huge alignment effort, where did AI progress stall out?

Will a major AI company publish a “responsible scaling policy” for AI consciousness by 2030?

Will FIFA cancel the soccer matches in Jalisco?

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