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Prediction markets for AI Safety Level

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

May 25, 5:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.99%chance

475909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

800

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.28%chance

122625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7188

4278

Aging cured by 2040 if AGI by 2030?

May 7, 9:30 PMDec 30, 9:09 PM

18.71%chance

231420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

27.15%chance

17792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

970

How many FLOPs will go into training the first ASL-3 model?

Oct 3, 2:08 AMOct 10, 3:59 AM

6683

OptionProbability

1e27

3e26

Other

3e25

1e25

1e26

1e24

3e24

30

26

16

9

8

6

2

2

Will OpenAI announce a new full-size, frontier model >5.2 before March 1, 2026?

Jan 14, 9:55 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

47.4%chance

17675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will a federal moratorium on ~all state level AI regulation be in place at any point before 2030?

Sep 12, 8:55 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.93%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

If most of the economy becomes automated without us all dying, will Eliezer Yudkowsky admit that he was wrong?

May 15, 12:35 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.79%chance

22396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

By what year will any AI lab release a model under ASL-4 measures?

Jul 16, 9:13 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6305

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

68

65

61

57

51

Will a major AI company publish a “responsible scaling policy” for AI consciousness by 2030?

Feb 4, 11:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.85%chance

11205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

150

Hardware Intelligence Explosion by 2040?

Dec 7, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

60

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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