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Prediction markets for AI Scene Generation

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

496718482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14169

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2027?

Jan 9, 2:13 PMJan 1, 6:11 PM

90%chance

248339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

496

45

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

48%chance

406304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

893

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.8%chance

365077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3049

331

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 5B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:55 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.88%chance

202419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1701

866

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

131949

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2039-2040

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

44

30

27

27

26

26

26

26

In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?

Sep 26, 1:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

43.42%chance

441839

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

687

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Jan 23, 9:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.44%chance

531613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1214

837

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 2B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:48 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

18.15%chance

191439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

947

Will Idaho House Bill 752 (A trans bathroom bill) be enacted into law?

Mar 22, 7:59 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

76.01%chance

3780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1780

562

By 2030, one-shot learning allows AI to recognize new objects in diverse settings from a single image?

Jan 5, 10:51 AMDec 31, 8:00 AM

73.61%chance

165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

84

30

Who will win EVW 23 armwrestling match, Brian Shaw or Leonidas Arkona?

Mar 12, 10:13 AMApr 19, 10:08 AM

150

OptionProbability

Leonidas Arkona (Germany)

Brian Shaw (USA)

69

31

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