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Prediction markets for AI Scene Generation

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.04%chance

508725007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16811

12177

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2027?

Jan 9, 2:13 PMJan 1, 6:11 PM

49.81%chance

389319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

184

152

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

20.97%chance

467509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1959

462

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.58%chance

395457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3087

327

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 5B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:55 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

5%chance

254881

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3111

760

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 2B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:48 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.88%chance

202694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1798

826

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

152009

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

44

30

27

26

26

26

26

23

In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?

Sep 26, 1:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.9%chance

451869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

717

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Jan 23, 9:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.22%chance

541632

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

856

[Carlini questions] AI system can produce a high-quality live-action hour-long movie given a rough script

Mar 24, 2:23 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9413

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

66

51

40

22

5

By 2030, one-shot learning allows AI to recognize new objects in diverse settings from a single image?

Jan 5, 10:51 AMDec 31, 8:00 AM

73.61%chance

165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

84

30

By EOY 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full movie based on the user's algorithmically observed preferences?

Oct 13, 9:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

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