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Prediction markets for AI Scene Generation

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.67%chance

480696936

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16706

12559

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 2B views before 2026?

Jan 17, 7:49 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1%chance

2112834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12834

516

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 5B views before 2026?

Jan 17, 7:56 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1%chance

2111085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7440

787

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2027?

Jan 9, 2:13 PMJan 1, 6:11 PM

95.65%chance

248319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

742

28

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

56.75%chance

375627

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

924

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.51%chance

365026

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3100

326

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

131949

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2039-2040

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

44

30

27

27

26

26

26

26

In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?

Sep 26, 1:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

43.42%chance

441839

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

687

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 5B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:55 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

8.6%chance

191814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1929

842

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Jan 23, 9:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.44%chance

531613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1214

837

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 2B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:48 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23%chance

181182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

800

Will ICE cause an incident of note at the Olympics?

Jan 29, 5:06 AMFeb 22, 11:59 PM

28%chance

21533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

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