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Prediction markets for AI Scientist

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Jul 12, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

20.58%chance

7313058

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

680

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

When will Nvidia's GH200 "Grace Hopper" superchip be released.

Aug 7, 12:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62443

OptionProbability

2024, January to June

2024, July to December

2025

2028

2029

2023, October to December

2026

2027

2023, August to September

44

38

5

3

3

2

2

2

1

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.19%chance

211719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

795

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

36.9%chance

151455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

766

When will we be able to chat with an AI convincingly impersonating a famous historical or living person?

Feb 5, 10:08 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

241238

OptionProbability

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2024

In 2025 or earlier

58

52

49

0

0

Do humans have free will?

Aug 19, 8:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.76%chance

351002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1465

828

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

68.91%chance

19761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Apr 7, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.2%chance

15282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

929

Will a custom podcast-creator be on the market by 2028? (details below)

Apr 11, 12:50 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

61.62%chance

7227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

267

180

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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