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Prediction markets for AI Software Engineer

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7244004

OptionProbability

3-3.5 months

3.5-4 months

4-4.5 months

<3 months

4.5-5 months

5-5.5 months

>7 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

34

15

13

12

6

5

4

3

3

3

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Mar 17, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.68%chance

7818600

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2043

489

What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2818474

OptionProbability

10-20%

20-30%

30-40%

<10%

40-50%

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

80-90%

≥90%

33

17

14

13

8

6

4

3

2

2

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2029?

Sep 12, 2:01 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

62.76%chance

576136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

630

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2027?

Sep 12, 2:01 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

30.86%chance

201193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

936

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

Mar 26, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.03%chance

91028

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

639

When will the median software engineer working today be unemployable due to AI?

Mar 15, 1:53 AMMar 22, 3:59 AM

18951

OptionProbability

2027-2030

2037-2040

2024-2027

2034-2037

2030-2034

35

33

14

10

7

Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI?

Feb 21, 9:22 PMFeb 22, 6:59 AM

72.23%chance

31877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

931

AI models will be able to complete 20-hour software engineering tasks in 2026

Jan 2, 7:39 AMJan 5, 7:59 AM

61.6%chance

10775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

790

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.32%chance

10603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

730

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

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