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Prediction markets for AI Software Engineer

Best AI time horizon by February 2026, per METR?

Apr 13, 1:30 PMApr 30, 10:59 PM

7657713

OptionProbability

8 to 16 hours

6 to 8 hours

>=16 hours

2 to 4 hours

4 to 6 hours

<2 hours

50

38

10

1

1

0

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5531844

OptionProbability

<3 months

4-4.5 months

4.5-5 months

3.5-4 months

>7 months

5-5.5 months

3-3.5 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

16

15

13

12

11

10

8

7

4

4

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Mar 17, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.59%chance

7217103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

897

What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1513139

OptionProbability

30-40%

40-50%

20-30%

50-60%

10-20%

60-70%

<10%

70-80%

80-90%

≥90%

20

17

16

12

9

7

6

6

3

2

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2029?

Sep 12, 2:01 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

55%chance

545602

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

753

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

Dec 26, 10:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

90.88%chance

774122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3322

444

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?

Feb 24, 11:59 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.25%chance

503304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

918

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2027?

Sep 12, 2:01 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

30.86%chance

201193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

936

When will the median software engineer working today be unemployable due to AI?

Mar 15, 1:53 AMMar 22, 3:59 AM

18934

OptionProbability

2027-2030

2037-2040

2024-2027

2034-2037

2030-2034

38

30

16

10

7

Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI?

Feb 21, 9:22 PMFeb 22, 6:59 AM

67.88%chance

30627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

989

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

AI models will be able to complete 20-hour software engineering tasks in 2026

Jan 2, 7:39 AMJan 5, 7:59 AM

55.49%chance

5589

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

896

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