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Prediction markets for AI Software Engineer

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6541470

OptionProbability

3-3.5 months

3.5-4 months

<3 months

4-4.5 months

4.5-5 months

5-5.5 months

>7 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

18

18

17

17

8

6

5

4

3

3

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Mar 17, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.59%chance

7217103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

897

What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1713464

OptionProbability

30-40%

40-50%

20-30%

50-60%

10-20%

60-70%

<10%

70-80%

80-90%

≥90%

20

17

16

12

10

7

6

6

3

2

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2029?

Sep 12, 2:01 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

62.76%chance

576136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

630

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

Dec 26, 10:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

90.82%chance

774137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3307

445

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2027?

Sep 12, 2:01 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

30.86%chance

201193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

936

When will the median software engineer working today be unemployable due to AI?

Mar 15, 1:53 AMMar 22, 3:59 AM

18951

OptionProbability

2027-2030

2037-2040

2024-2027

2034-2037

2030-2034

35

33

14

10

7

Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI?

Feb 21, 9:22 PMFeb 22, 6:59 AM

67.88%chance

30627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

989

AI models will be able to complete 20-hour software engineering tasks in 2026

Jan 2, 7:39 AMJan 5, 7:59 AM

55.49%chance

6599

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

896

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

752

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

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