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Prediction markets for AI Suite

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45126300

OptionProbability

≥90%

80-90%

40-50%

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

<30%

30-40%

93

3

1

1

1

1

0

0

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7546918

OptionProbability

3.5-4 months

3-3.5 months

4-4.5 months

4.5-5 months

<3 months

5-5.5 months

>7 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

25

18

18

14

9

4

4

3

3

2

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

17244365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1585

1297

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.32%chance

10519439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1897

748

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.46%chance

899351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1356

1296

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.68%chance

643574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1728

1059

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.88%chance

222949

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1996

503

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.97%chance

212082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1529

654

Any other soccer league/tournament implements 4 quarters (2 hydration breaks) in the next year?

Jun 16, 1:34 AMJun 16, 1:33 AM

43.57%chance

8740

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

879

Tennis-like sport played on another planet or in space by end 2036

Oct 8, 6:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.15%chance

13328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

945

Will the physical remains of Donald Trump lie in state in the capitol rotunda?

Mar 27, 10:28 PMDec 27, 10:20 PM

58.35%chance

9324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

950

Will the New York Times v. OpenAI suit cause a setback for AI safety?

Dec 30, 5:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.11%chance

5222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

69

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