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Prediction markets for AI Time Machine

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.18%chance

295113284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9857

5494

Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?

Jan 31, 12:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.13%chance

11354659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4779

831

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.55%chance

8250361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28550

2982

Will >97% of all jobs be fully automated before the year 2075?

Aug 29, 10:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.77%chance

10916674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1505

729

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

894

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

Aug 23, 6:50 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.4%chance

367049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15737

14292

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.22%chance

192163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

900

11

Will an autonomous robot beat an Olympic champion at table tennis before 2028?

Apr 22, 7:20 PMDec 31, 8:08 PM

21.57%chance

121502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

524

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Jul 28, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.38%chance

191406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

906

Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?

Oct 12, 1:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.67%chance

28878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

577

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

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