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Prediction markets for AI Time Machine

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.5%chance

9839421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2073

1626

Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?

Jan 31, 12:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

8035836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2861

2496

Will >97% of all jobs be fully automated before the year 2075?

Aug 29, 10:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.31%chance

10816359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1410

790

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

894

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

181963

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

14

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Jul 28, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.59%chance

191390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

865

Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?

Oct 12, 1:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.67%chance

28878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

577

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

When will the MVM update for TF2 be released?

Feb 13, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:06 AM

2313

OptionProbability

July 2026

Later than 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

August 2026

September 2026

March 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

February 2026

12

11

9

9

9

9

9

8

8

8

8

3

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

79.39%chance

782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

137

36

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