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Prediction markets for AI Ultra

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles?

Mar 3, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

302616

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2026

2024

2025

72

56

32

0

0

Will Apple announce an iPhone Air 2 in 2026 event?

Mar 18, 4:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

111056

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?

May 4, 6:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.43%chance

11712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

776

Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?

May 3, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.85%chance

16523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

369

27

Will Apple's foldable iPhone be called 'iPhone Ultra'?

Apr 8, 3:58 PMDec 31, 4:53 PM

25.3%chance

10172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

58

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

Will Google announce Gemini 4 at I/O 2026 (May 19-20)?

May 1, 10:01 AMMay 21, 6:00 AM

26%chance

794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

14

Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026?

Apr 29, 9:35 AMJul 31, 10:00 PM

74%chance

673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

77

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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