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Prediction markets for AI Ultra

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles?

Mar 3, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

393199

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2026

2024

2025

83

79

78

0

0

Will Apple announce an iPhone Air 2 in 2026 event?

Mar 18, 4:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

182243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Trillions: Will there be two more trillionaires besides Elon Musk by February 28, 2029? (2/28/29)

Aug 3, 3:47 PMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

28.43%chance

16844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?

May 4, 6:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.43%chance

11712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

776

Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?

May 3, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.85%chance

16523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

369

27

Will free Gemini app users get access to Gemini 4 Argon by November 15, 2026?

Oct 15, 9:55 AMNov 16, 7:59 AM

5.24%chance

5170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

268

84

When Anthropic will release Jev/DecisionAPI alternative?

Sep 29, 6:31 PMSep 29, 6:25 PM

6162

OptionProbability

Before January 1, 2027

2028 or later or never

Q1 2027

Q2 2027

Q3 2027

Q4 2027

57

17

6

6

6

6

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

Will OpenAI in EOY 2027 primarily serve inference on their flagship model on non-GPU hardware

Sep 3, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.45%chance

12123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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